I anticipate that the UMC will sanction same-sex marriages at their general conference in either 2016 or 2020. The reconciling movement for full inclusion within the UMC is becoming increasingly more influential than the evangelical caucuses every year. The Frank Schaefer saga, and the push to defrock other UMC pastors that perform same-sex ceremonies, I believe is more out of desperation than because it represents a prevailing view. I think even as pastors and bishops push back against the reconciling movement for full inclusion, there is increasingly an acceptance that the change is going to happen. It's a shame it hasn't happened yet, because the UMC was historically on the edge of social progress, as denominations go--John Wesley himself authorized women to preach back in 1761 when it was unthinkable in other denominations. From what I know, I expect the Mormons and Catholics will be the last hold-outs.