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crafty  ·  3440 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Sea level study: James Hansen issues dire climate warning.

Having grown up in Florida, it's strange for me to think that many of the neighborhoods I remember as a child will no longer exist. That contemplative, inward looking revelation is in stark contrast to the knock-on effects of a forced migration for the majority of the human population, which frighten me much more.

I guess the thing I wonder about is how quick will it happen? They say that already we're seeing some effects of slight/gradual sea-level rise, but most people don't seem to put two and two together. If it's denial, or ignorance, I'm not sure, however if the predictions for abrupt climate change are true, it seems like there will be a crisis or event that forces people to confront these realities. Even once the majority do come to that realization, considering we don't know for certain what will be the speed or extent of the changes, how will those migrating react? If over the course of a decade, an entire city like Miami becomes uninhabitable, will people just gradually move with the coastline or will there be an event where everyone moves at once? Where will they move to? Sure, individuals can move gradually, but the infrastructure coastal cities require can't do that.

It's interesting that they're publishing in a discussion journal, rather than a peer-review journal. I would assume it will still be peer reviewed later? I watched an interview with a scientist named Guy McPherson (link, relevant portion begins at around 8:00) where he talked about how the IPCC's predictions are consistently conservative, using old data. Since they require everything to be peer reviewed, and the lead-in time from when a scientist has an idea or sees something, to the time that theory is researched, published and peer-reviewed can easily take seven to ten years. Generally, I'd say that's not a problem, but if they're studying something like a methane feedback loop that can have dramatic social and climate consequences on a ten or twenty year timescale, policy makers and leaders must be much closer to the cutting-edge research than they currently are.