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raysmuckles  ·  3412 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A Three-Question Quiz To Test Your Rationality

Supposedly the bias is that we give more credence to a more specific and credible-sounding description than something vague. In the book, Kahnemann asks three completely independent groups one of those three questions each and gets them to assign a likelihood. I think the '85% of people got this wrong' is an incorrect description of Kahnemann's experiment... it'd be more like "in 85% of cases, the probabilities assigned by independent groups gave an impossible result"