Not exactly because it is specific, but the specific details form a narrative that sounds plausible. The Black Swan descibes Kahneman and Tversky asking forecasting professionals to give odds on the following two events: a. A massive flood somewhere in America in which more than a thousand people die. b. An earthquake in California, causing massive flooding, in which more than a thousand people die. The first event was rated less likely than the second, even though that description includes the second scenario and more. Another example: Joey seemed happily married. He killed his wife. This seems unlikely; it doesn't make sense. Joey seemed happily married. He killed his wife to get her inheritance. Now it seems more likely, even though we have reduced the possible scope of causes.