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user-inactivated  ·  3223 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Rise of American Authoritarianism

    over 20 trans women were murdered for being trans last year.

Not to be flippant, but is that all? I honestly expected that number to be higher. Roughly 1700 children under the age of six were killed due to parental neglect in 2014, and that number does not count outright homicides due to violence, most of which are firearm related. Homicide is the leading cause of death to children under six in the US. With the recent talk of a wave of homicide against trans people, I expected that number to be about equal with childhood deaths for some reason.

    I'm curious what will happen if for some reason Trump can't get a majority of delegates, and is maneuvered out of the GOP candidacy (the establishment hates him enough to try it). Will he take it lying down? will he run as a 3rd party candidate? what will happen with the GOP?

From my own anecdotal exposure to GOP diehards, I can offer the following. If Trump wins, many Evangelicals are going to stay home. If the nominee is Cruz, expect record Evangelical turnout for the good Christian boy. There are people active right now in the GOP who won't vote "R" if there is no Trump on the ticket, and I don't think that Trump's ego will allow him to run as VP. So, it looks to me that it will be a wash and the general election tally will depend on how many Sander's supporters stay home when Hillary wins.

The Trump effect, much like the Sanders effect will be more felt in the down races. Trump gets in, expect more R's in the state and local win columns with the increased turnout. Sanders gets the nod and Trump gets hosed? Expect at least a minor D wave at the state and Congress level. The one thing that I do fee confident in predicting is that election day is going to be bananas. Long lines, faulty equipment, untrained election workers, Polling place chaos, etc. Early voting needs to be made national, but that is another post in another thread.