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asteroidblues · 3032 days ago · link · · parent · post: Looking for a book recommendation about finance / macroeconomics
Well, from what I understand of the black swan is that Nassim, according to his theory, knows there will be a Hitler (black swan) but the predictability of when it will happen in the future is the issue of contention. If you got to a close enough of a timeline where you were able to oversee the various factors that contributed to the rise of hitler and nazism, then yes there is predictability, but that's because you were given so much information. Why the distate for taleb? Even though his ideas might not flow smoothly in the context of history, he has made fortunes out of assuming underlyings of black swans and it's served him pretty well.