People will vote for something they believe in. People voted for Trump because they believed the system needed a kick in the nuts. They're seeing it. am_unition's comment points out that the government shutdown hurt Trump's approval because it put a lot of people out of work. Political allegiance is very much identity. The question being asked by everyone is whether enough Americans will identify with Trump in 2020 - because that determines how you run, democrat or republican. You don't need to be politically savvy to have an opinion about whether your life has gotten better or worse under Trump. In 2016, he was the protest vote. In 2020, he's the establishment vote. These are dynamics that can be modeled but they can't be easily predicted.Lotta people who like guns will vote R even if they don't really care for Trump.