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    events that cause disruption like this pandemic

I don't know who's right, but many people argue that the cure is worse than the disease.

    if we had a shock like the pandemic on an annual basis

If we had a response like 2020, every year, it wouldn't be Dark Ages right away but it would be bleak. If we only had the novel virus and let it run wild, it would cause a slight (and very tragic) bump in the baseline mortality rate. Influenza and pneumonia could be ten times deadlier, and they would still be less deadly than heart disease and cancer are individually.