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wasoxygen · 1434 days ago · link · · parent · post: How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters
Offshore oddsmakers made a killing in 2016 too! I think it's a bit too easy to describe people as irrational and gullible for being willing to risk some cash on a prediction. If it was irrational to hope that reelection was possible, then it was irrational to worry that reelection was possible. I managed to lose money on PredictIt in both 2016 and 2020 by betting on what I thought the more likely outcome would be, both times struggling to weigh the forecasts of others. It's still an open question as to whether prediction markets are more reliable than the alternatives.