This is an excellent insight. What you are hypothesizing, fundamentally, is that Dunning-Kruger bias among the mathematically-inclined will result in an inappropriate reliance on Bayesian statistics. This in turn creates a virtuous cycle of overconfidence and inappropriate analysis. By way of extension, I think the core issue is simpler: The whole of the TESCREAL mindset is "I am a more valuable person than you." That will necessarily result in the deprecation of expertise from the outgroup. This manifests as a practiced philosophy of avoiding/disregarding/deprecating empathy. "Statistics are human beings with the tears wiped away.”Bayes' theorem is simple and elegant, but suffers from a critical flaw for many applications, which is that it relies on a priori knowledge of probabilities of certain events happening.