An incumbent candidate whom the majority of his party views as the victim of a stolen election mustered 51% of primary votes in mutherfucking Iowa. And how, exactly, would the US split? There's this real need to simplistically stare at a map and go "that's a red state, that's a blue state" when the reality is that Biden won where people live and Trump won where people don't:

Trump was going to be the 2024 candidate the minute Four Seasons Total Landscaping became a meme. That's one reason this has been such a deeply unserious spectacle. Here are the real questions:

- Are more people going to vote Trump in 2024 than 2020? Every poll, every analysis, every indication we have is "no."

- Are fewer people going to vote Biden in 2020 than 2024? Tough to say. It's going to depend almost entirely on the economy, and economic sentiment rocketed right out of the doldrums last month. Yeah, yeah, Israel/Palestine, the tankie outrage machine will have moved on to some other dumb shit Americans can't focus on foreign wars without US troops on the ground for more than a couple months.

There is every indication that Trump won't debate. This means that Biden's messages will be whatever he can put out as press releases and Trump's messages will be whatever he puts out in his rallies. I don't know if you've seen his rallies lately but they aren't exactly targeted as a general audience.

Here, click around.

Is there anything there for anyone not already in the tent? Is there anything in there for someone disappointed with Biden?