Polling has really wide margins of error at this early stage. I think people are likelier to say challenger over incumbent the farther from the vote you actually are. And in this case, it's probably more pronounced, because you know Uncle Joe is going to hammer J6 footage on TV ads until our eyes bleed. Mitt Romney had a lead in MI in early polls in 2012 and lost by like 9 points. Trump will fade. He may be more senile than Biden, and that will become more clear the more people have to actually watch him. He can't even keep Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi straight anymore. The Big Mac gunk is degrading his synapses by the day, and I don't think 50% of people are that stupid no matter how little they think of Biden. Call me an optimist. I've been wrong a lot.