The biggest difficulty I'm seeing right now is there are a lot of building owners who take their purchase price in like 2009-2018, extrapolate 6% per year appreciation because that's what the industry tells them they're entitled to, and then utterly disregard that the 4% rate they bought with and the 8.5% prime (11.5% SBA(7a)) that's out there now do not lend themselves to similar payments.

Let's say you bought a $1m building in April of 2017. You put $300k down. You're at $3600/mo ($2600/mo interest-only). You need to come up with $570k in the next two months and your calculations say your building is currently worth $1.8m.

Let's say I'm negotiating to buy a building in February of 2024. I can put $300k down. That $2600/mo interest-only payment and $300k down buys me a... $650k building. Yeah. You financed $700k, I financed $350k, we have the same payment.

Let's say I'm negotiating to buy your building in February of 2024. I can put $300k down. I'm now paying $12k a month ($11k interest-only).

Let's instead say "fuck this shit" and put that $300k in a CD making 5.5%. If I extrapolate out to when the balloon payment would be due (10 years), I've made $200k just leaving my money in the bank.

Let's now say "fukkit let's rent" and you're gonna be super eager to tie me down to whatever you can fucking get because it's good for your cap rate but I'm gonna go hollupaminnit

And go "yeah, that's residential, but go check out that office vacancy rate again fucko" and keep my powder decidedly fucking dry.

You bought a building seven years ago for a million dollars because it was going to be your retirement. You were going to sell it for $1.8, buy another for $1m using a 1031 exchange and live off of $100k a year until it's time to do it again. And here I am, going "payment for payment your property is worth $650k fucko" and that leaves you $70k after your balloon payment.

We're over a million dollars apart. On what was, in 2017, a million dollar building. Who's gonna blink first? That's what it looks like for me.