A few colleagues and I have a U.S. Presidential Election pool going. I thought it would be interesting to see what predictions we might get here.
In our pool, we gave the winner, electoral count, and the popular vote, plus a short rationale.
Here is my prediction:
- Winner: Obama
Electoral Votes: Obama: 290; Romney: 248
General Vote: Obama: 51.0%; Romney: 47.8%; Other: 1.2%
Rationale: Obama wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, loses Florida, wins Colorado, but loses Virginia. The Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulls enough votes from Romney to give Obama a narrow wins in Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire, but does not have the effect in Virginia and Florida. The GOP is soul-searching, pulled between libertarian economics and conservative religious views. Obama's turnout is lower than 2008, which costs him in Virginia, but Romney is too much of a compromise candidate, and ultimately, woman and Hispanics support Obama in greater numbers, giving him the Western swing states of Colorado, and Nevada.
(Apologies to non-US Hubskiers. This nonsense will shortly pass. However, feel free to make a prediction!)