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I could really see this scenario developing unfortunately, along with the criminalization of using the 'underground free web' so that opting out of the gov't web will make people criminals by definition, literally removing choice from the equation.
Also, the legal web will be like cable TV. I could also see he web decentralizing ad infinitim with tech that turns all mobile devices into nodes. This tech is already in development. In this scenario things are better but you still may end up with a tiered web from a content consumption point of view. I guess the only thing I'm certain of is increased regulation by governments and corporations in the short term.