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I've consistently found you over optimistic about over big picture U.S. politics. Guns is the one that stands out most clearly. In a country that has now tightly restricted abortion in just about half of the states I think bounds of the possible are wider than I've ever seen them. I hope you aren't right. While the breakup would be painful, I think many places would realize futures that would be more fruitful than they would otherwise be. The costs would be significant and the benefits would probably not be evenly spread out.