Another thing I got from 60 Minutes was that if they're going to stick to the 30-minute rule they're going to need to have inventory in warehouses all over the place, which kinda defeats the point of Amazon in the first place. EDIT: god I shouldn't post when I'm tired.
Amazon isn't likely to meet many competitors because they're not profitable. You look at their model and go "wow, that's a lot of money to spend in order to break even in 20 years." 85% of the world's hazelnuts are grown in two counties in Oregon. That hasn't changed since WWII. The reason is that a hazelnut tree is a useful producer for about 30 years… and at current and historic prices, the break-even point for commercial hazelnut production is 18 years. So nobody plants them. If it's going to take eighteen years for you to recoup your investment and barely a decade of profitability before you're back in it, you're going to find something else to plant. I think what's far more likely to happen is for shipping to get more expensive, local goods to improve their edge and the global hegemony of internationally-sourced goods to decrease. It isn't a feel-good farmer's market thing by my reckoning, it's a "leather goods made in Los Angeles that cost $8 extra to make are suddenly price-competitive when shipping leather goods from Vietnam costs $8."
How might this come about? Is it happening already? Also, I didn't know that about hazelnut trees.I think what's far more likely to happen is for shipping to get more expensive, local goods to improve their edge and the global hegemony of internationally-sourced goods to decrease. It isn't a feel-good farmer's market thing by my reckoning, it's a "leather goods made in Los Angeles that cost $8 extra to make are suddenly price-competitive when shipping leather goods from Vietnam costs $8.
Increasing energy costs. There's a reason China pushed heavily into Kazakhstan and Nigeria - they know we've got the Middle East and South America sewn up and they need oil, too. The Hubbert Peak remains controversial and difficult to gauge, but there are reasons to believe the Saudis hit it in 2010. We're now developing tar sand and oil shale in Canada which means we aren't going to run out of oil soon, but it's going to get more expensive. Double the cost of bunker oil and you've effectively doubled the cost of international shipping. There's also China's Yuan/dollar peg. Should China decide to let the Yuan set its own exchange rate it'll go up by 50-100%. That fucks up your import/export costs, too. Nobody knows that about hazelnut trees. One has to have spent a considerable amount of time researching orchard crops to learn these sorts of things. You are now aware that that raspberry you ate came from Whatcom County, WA, more likely than not.
I love that the link has a list of miscellaneous definitions. That's really very helpful! I was just listening to the radio at lunch and caught a part of a conversation where one of the commenters said that he thought that the tax breaks the U.S. government gives to oil companies is a major obstacle to alternative forms of energy. Since you didn't mention anything about alternative forms of energy and as you point out, countries are still aggressively pursuing stable sources of oil, do you think that alternative sources of energy are likely to be viable in the near future?
Energy systems are complex. I don't fully understand them. A lot of my historical reading has given me an appreciation for "The Great Game" and has convinced me that, in all honesty, I would have played the middle east in almost the exact same way, warfare, strife, revolution, oppression and all. That said, there's a reason China is pushing so hard into solar. There's a reason T Boone Pickens pushed so hard into wind. There's a reason Elon Musk is pushing so hard into solar. Most of the Preppers are of a mind that "energy" is going to up and go away, causing a massive collapse. Most anybody with a non-apocalyptic worldview will simply notice that energy will just get more expensive, which makes the more expensive, extant sources more attractive. Check the chart. It's all going up but turbine and small scale, and heliostats, solar and wind aren't even on there. Turbine and small scale are going down largely because of fracking.
I believe that wind and solar fall under "Small Scale", if I understand the note at the bottom of the table. I've seen you mention your historical reading in the past, in regard to the Middle-East. What would you recommend reading as kind of a primer on The Great Game? Or, what might I read to start understanding it better?