Ha! http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/BEARX/f?t=BEARX I put $20k into BEARX in 2003. I pulled it all out February 28, 2009. I'd say the picture has been darkening for a while now...
I had, like six funds I invested with at the time. But yeah. Between 2003 and 2008 I increased my money 150%. Then between 2008 and now it's been in a ratcheting index fund. I may get creative again but right now? I like not thinking about it. There's a great quote in "The Signal and the Noise" about the stock market. _____________________________________________________________________________ 3. Efficient market hypothesis as an illustration of the Bayesian approach Although Silver gives numerous examples of his Bayesian probabilistic approach to problems with numbers, one of his best examples is purely textual, on the efficient market hypothesis. He lists seven increasingly accurate, yet also qualified and probabilistic statements, on what we know about efficient markets. The series of increasingly accurate, yet ‘less bold,’ statements are not only a great illustration of his big idea but also the right lesson for us on investing, so I reproduce it in full here: a) No investor can beat the stock market.[6] b) No investor can beat the stock market over the long run.[7] c) No investor can beat the stock market over the long run relative to his level of risk.[8] d) No investor can beat the stock market over the long run relative to his level of risk and accounting for transaction costs.[9] e) No investor can beat the stock market over the long run relative to his level of risk and accounting for his transaction costs, unless he has inside information[10] f) Few investors can beat the stock market over the long run relative to their level of risk and accounting for their transaction costs, unless they have inside information[11] g) It is hard to tell how many investors beat the stock market over the long run, because the data is very noisy, but we know that most cannot relative to their level of risk, since trading produces no net excess return but entails transaction costs, so unless you have inside information, you are probably better off investing in an index fund.[12] The first approximation – the unqualified statement that no investor can beat the stock market – seems to be extremely powerful. By the time we get to the last one, which is full of expressions of uncertainty, we have nothing that would fit on a bumper sticker. But it is also a more complete description of the objective world.
I have an experimental account I started with $1k about 5 years ago. I buy a stock and hold until it appreciates by 20%. I then keep half of the appreciation, sell the rest (initial investment +10% profit), pick another stock and repeat. Sometimes I don't sell for more than a year. Sometimes I sell within a month of buying. It's at $2753 right now, but was at $4300 about 1 year ago. I've decided to just keep going from here on out and see what happens. I'll leave what remains for my daughter. If a pal asks you to invest in his new business, you get all the inside information you can. That's investing. Stocks are not investing. Yes, it's tough to make a case that now is the time to buy.I may get creative again but right now? I like not thinking about it.
One thing I like about this account, is that the best strategy seems to be to find minor bad news for a stock that I am fairly familiar with. If the stock gets pushed down 5-10% from where it's been bouncing, there's a good chance that time alone will get me to with 10% or so of my appreciation goal. Picking stocks on bad news feels easier.