Things are indeed looking good. I expect at least one more adjustment to the Big Mac Index, which should put the comparison number up around $96. Oil closed at $50.04 yesterday. There is still time for a recovery, but after the last crash oil prices regained only half of the loss within a year. A similar recovery starting today would leave me comfortably in the black.
I'm not sure the situations are very comparable between now and '09. In that case, demand hit the wall due to the global recession. This time around, demand isn't as high as projected, but it's high by historic standards. Oversupply is driving the price down, and that is probably due to many factors that include both foreign policy (screwing Putin) and international trade (jockeying for market share). Demand is fickle, but supply can be altered willy nilly by the powers-that-be. I'm not saying the price recovery won't follow the same time course, I'm just saying that the etiologies of the two recent price collapses are not similar, and that there is no reason, therefore, for the recoveries to be similar either....after the last crash oil prices regained only half of the loss within a year.
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