Years ago, a doctor friend of my father's was at a drive up ATM in the Cape Coral area of Florida. While being held at gun point for what was, at the time, a $200 max withdrawal, the assailant decided not to leave a witness, and killed the doctor. Meaningless crime, and loss of life. I hope the need for my weapon to ever leave it's holster never arises. I wouldn't want to make the decision, or distinctions, that would end anyone's life; myself included. I can't honestly say that if surprised by a would be thief that was after my wallet that I would risk my life or those with me for a replaceable, tangible thing. The event I am on guard against is the one that separates my life, or my family's life, from me. If, as you state, misplaced bravado is a faulty reason used to possess a CCW, then I would agree that that individual is not a good candidate. I am probably a bit older than most who post on this site, so I have a benefit of years, and a even tempered disposition to help balance the distasteful possibility of ending a life.
The problem with 1, is that there is only a very slim chance that you'll have certainty, and then be able to use your gun to effect. The problem with 2 is that you risk escalating non-lethal situations into one, and as it stands, most armed robbery doesn't result in murder. When you consider the slight possibly benefit of carrying, and weigh it against the possible accidents and scenarios gone wrong, I just don't think it is worth the risks. That said, I do support your right to carry, and I just hope that are very conservative about your carrying and use. Also, you might be surprised at the age range here. It's pretty large.