Fascinating, but how will they deal with pirates? Will they really be able to generate all the energy they need just from solar power? What about building materials and medical supplies? And won't people feel isolated from the rest of the world? I understand he only had 10 minutes to sell his vision of the future, but I wish he'd alsoaddressed the challenges seasteding is going to have to face.
Hi Grendel. I'm not sure about pirates. At first I laughed (thought you were joking), and then I realized this is actually a good question. Seasteading is spending a lot of time, energy, and probably investor dollars on smart research so I imagine they're thinking hard about security designs too—hopefully ones that will be uninvasive to the people who live there. You asked: "Will they really be able to generate all the energy they need just from solar power?" I understand your skepticism, especially given that the technology and public sentiment haven't entirely caught up. In the past, solar power cost a lot to convert relative to the rewards. Those panels we all picture were expensive to buy and far too big; but the technology is rapidly changing. Very. Consider this: the sun blasts the planet with more energy in one hour than humanity consumes in a year. Amazing, right? If we were able to put researchers and scientists in a place completely outside of the territory of bogged down governments and bureaucracies so they could actually make rapid progress on work they know is possible, things could happen. Developing nations could catch up. The oceans could provide power to the entire world. National and corporate conflicts over fossil fuels would become a thing of the past. I believe that's what Seasteading is about. Another thing they are about is creating new forms of non-traditional governance that are NOT bureaucratic in nature. That's a big part of what captures my interest in them.
Oh, there's definitely a lot of potential in seasteading, and if it's as close to being a viable solution as he says, I suppose they've already thought about basic questions like the ones I asked and they're confident that they have the answers. I think most people are going to ask similar questions, and be more worried about if it can be done, rather than why (the political/social/environmental implications).
I think you're right. What does Silicon Valley say? "Fail early, fail often, and fail forward." Rapid iteration is an intentional recipe, and feedback is built into the design. People freak out every time there's a bug in the latest iOS update, but if Apple waited until there were no bugs, it would take years for a release. WE help them figure out the best designs faster and faster. The folks at Seasteading are calling themselves 'aquapreneurs.' I take this to mean they expect to fail sometimes, and to learn extremely valuable lessons each time they do. I'm sure they're open to critique; most thoughtful people I know are. It's only the fate of the world at stake, so you know ... Early and often and forward.
That makes me wonder, can the aquapreneurs afford to fail? The kind of approach to failure you described works well in Silicon Valley, in a context where you're dealing with data and most of the time failure is a result of not living up to the promises you made or running out of money or not knowing your audience. People report a bug in your update, you patch it. Nobody buys your app, oh well, better luck next time. The social and monetary price for failing is relatively low. This gives you the opportunity to not only learn from your mistakes, but also to make use of those lessons. Now let's consider a hypothetical scenario where pirates attack your city, kill most of the men and kidnap all the women and children. Who's going to give you a second chance after that? I hope I don't sound pessimistic. I just want to draw attention to the fact that the people who are trying to make seasteading a reality are going to have to deal with all the challenges involved in creating a modern city state, in addition to the purely technological and economic ones.
Here's what Joe Quirk (the guy in the video, the author by the same name, and Seasteading's Director of Communications) told us when we talked to him about the project last week: "I've come to define expert as anyone who can explain to me in great detail why some solution will never work 6 months before some group I never heard about makes the solution work. The network of minds working on a problem is far better at finding solutions than one mind researching the problem." Please don't think I'm being cheeky with this reply. Not at all. I believe your responses are smart and ...only natural. But Seasteading is putting in years of research and testing before its model hits the waves. There are no guarantees except one: not to try would be an utter waste of potential resources. Algae farms convert greenhouse gasses to food we can eat; food people can turn into their own farms & businesses. And that's just one aspect of what this project can do. We need it. We can't afford to be overly cautious. Whatever the risks are; we have to find the solutions.