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comment by crafty
crafty  ·  3394 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The 5 telltale techniques of climate change denial .

I've heard of the flat-earthers, and I suppose it is an interesting examination of the value of skepticism. Reality is always more complex than a first or second glance can expose, and without questioning our theories and observations, we will never find truth. I guess framing it as a dilemma is misleading; perhaps a better way to look at it would be that some people have stronger preconceived views and seek out or reject evidence to reinforce those views, while others are more willing to let their views follow what evidence they encounter? I know that psychology can instinctively push our behavior into the former group, but I like to think myself, and many others, consciously try to avoid that, knowing the pitfalls which it entails.

    My skepticism makes me say "I am not sure it is true," not "I am sure it is not true." We see evidence of rising temperatures and increasing atmospheric carbon. It seems obtuse to ignore the industrial revolution as a likely source of the carbon, and a greenhouse effect as as a plausible cause of the warming. What that means for the future is hard to say with precision. I hope the controversy will lead to more careful research and a better understanding of the world.

I think that is a good way of looking at it, and I would say I agree with that. Obviously I'm nowhere close to being a climate scientist, so if asked my opinion about it, the best I can do is basically parrot whatever seems plausible, or was said by the smartest people I think I've heard or read. And certainly, politicized issues require the highest degree of careful examination for propaganda.

That is interesting about volcanoes, I hadn't really heard much about it, so I did some googling and pulled up a spate of articles from various sources, PopSci, Dec. 2012, Gizmag, Dec. 2012, Yale e360, May 2012, LiveScience, Jan. 2013. I also found a metabunk thread discussing, gathering and comparing geologic activity levels from various sources. I think you are certainly right about the earth being an incredibly complex system, so perhaps there is some sort of relationship there; most of the scientists talking about it seem to think the melting or freezing of glaciers and icecaps affect the pressure of subsurface magma, which would make sense, although I suppose it could be the other way around maybe? Pretty much all of the graphs on the metabunk thread indicate a fairly steady rate of geologic activity, in contrast with (comparatively) rapidly changing temperatures, so I guess I'm not sure if I feel particularly sold on the theory that increased volcanism is the driving factor of climate change, but I would hope that volcanologists are intensely studying any links there.

    If the warming is actually explained by volcanoes instead of insufficient Prii, it doesn't mean we don't have a problem. But the responsible approach may be to give it some more time. I think climate science is in an early, uncertain stage, like the Victorians arguing over the river. The problem is difficult but the solutions are also very difficult and very expensive and far from infallible.

    The climate crisis also fits uncomfortably well into a very long history of gloomy predictions of doom which turned out to be completely contrary to fact. Maybe this time it's different.

Well, I really hope the wait and see attitude turns out to be the right choice, because that feels like the path we're taking. I guess it is "cheaper" to just let humanity just ride out the changes as they occur, hoping they will be gradual enough that civilization does not collapse. I feel like the cheaper option today will be more expensive in the long run, but I suppose if there is one thing people have proven time and time again, we masters at passing on the price of our shortsightedness and lack of will to future generations. Unfortunately, considering my age, I worry my generation could bear a very heavy cost.