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comment by rinx
rinx  ·  3300 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What the bond market knows that the stock market doesn't

    It is very hard to see how equities are going to avoid a significant downturn.

It's worth noting that this is basically statistically certain. At some point, equities are going to take a dive. The problem is no one knows when, and if you stay out of equities for years while waiting for the dip you could miss years of gains. Better to keep a reasonable amount in equities and stick to a simple asset allocation.





mk  ·  3300 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I would be very surprised if this rally has years left. Of course, individual stocks can buck the trend, but for quite some time leading up to the rate hike, good news was bad news as there remained hope that rate hikes would be further delayed.

Here is an interesting ETF that tracks junk bonds.

The last six months look like a genuine downturn. As it seems that bond fueled buybacks and dividends will fall, it seems a major contributor to the bull market has been lost.

I don't see much reason for a continued rally at this point.