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comment by kleinbl00




johnnyFive  ·  2961 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Be wary of putting too much faith in pre-election polls. My understanding is that people tend to fall back to party loyalty when it comes time to actually vote.

You probably also have a reverse-Obama effect. There were people who said they'd vote for a black man for president who in reality wouldn't. By the same token, I expect there are people who say they don't support Trump but secretly do.

kleinbl00  ·  2961 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That's not a poll, that's a poll aggregate, that demonstrates that exact "fall back to party loyalty."

One of those parties has never been about Trump. The other is just now determining what price loyalty.

someguyfromcanada  ·  2961 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I am not sure how that graph illustrates where the undecideds are going. It simply says that 84% of people are voting either Dem or Rep.

How does that translate into: "Clinton's lead is becoming safer"?

In a buried sentence: "With more voters committed to one of the two major-party nominees, Trump simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure."

kleinbl00  ·  2961 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What it says is that the undecided voters are falling in the Clinton camp, and that Clinton has a strong lead in the polls. If all the votes fell 50/50 Democrat/Republican at this point, Clinton would still have about a 5% majority. If all the votes fell third party at this point, Clinton would still have about a 5% majority.

About fifteen percent of the electorate is undecided at this point. Clinton has about a 5 point lead. Trump has to pull in undecided voters by a two to one margin in order to make the election close.

That would require an impressive turnabout of public sentiment at this point.

Also consider: this clip has existed since 2005. It's been in somebody's Avid for ten years. And there's a debate day after tomorrow. Who the hell runs this shit on a Friday afternoon...

...unless you're trying to make the whole Alicia Machado gambit look like a warmup act?

The debate is going to be interesting.

onlythelonly  ·  2961 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I was curious why this was released on a Friday.