I think American manufacturers are going to be feeling the pain as well. The tariffs on steel and aluminum will be felt in pretty much every industry. It will be interesting to see what the long-term consequences will be. I do feel like we've enabled the rise of a radical authoritarian government, and now this generation has to deal with a powerful and aggressive China that was enabled by the previous generation's "entrepreneurs" trying to make a quick buck from what was almost slave labor.
So a funny thing happened on the way to the forum. I went to this massive manufacturing trade show a few weeks ago. It was, of course, chockablock with traditional big scary companies and, of course, an imposing representation of odd Chinese vendors you've never heard of. And the odd Chinese vendors you've never heard of had some impressive stuff - theoretically. I started talking to one about a sophisticated machine that does fancy stuff (the particulars don't matter). Over the course of five emails, it was revealed that: - It does not speak to any software other than their own. They assert it can be made to. This is important as the first half of CAD/CAM is "software" and if that slash in the middle is an X factor, your process can't make it more than halfway. - If it breaks they have Youtube videos. In Chinese. That's it. - If you have trouble setting it up they have Youtube videos. In Chinese. That's it. - It uses its own proprietary control system and cannot be upgraded to speak anything else. The sixth email revealed that it was within 10% of the price of the gold-standard Swiss machine that speaks every post known to man, is supported out of California and New York, has authorized repair and support within eight zip codes of me and comes with the industry-standard control protocol. Usually, if you're going to deal with shady fly-by-night Chinese vendors, you do so because of a terrific price discount. But we're talkin' $200k vs. $220k. And that was kind of universal across the board- the Chinese stuff was simply not cheap enough to justify buying fly-by-night. It felt foreboding.
China has spent the past 30 years building a middle class at practically any cost; now that they have one they're having to switch strategies. Blitzkrieg works fine so long as you aren't trying to hold territory. The minute you have to sustain and govern you need to completely revise your strategies. Even ISIS learned this. China couldn't make a viable 5-axis precision mill-turn machine 20 years ago. Now they can. But they're doing it with skilled middle-class labor that wants to live like a skilled middle class, which means they need to be paid like a skilled middle class... and when they aren't, there's unrest. A China of crappy knock-off electronics and porous 2nd-rate castings is a cheap China. A China where the indigenous industries are kickin' out product that can compete with an iPhone? Whole 'nuther matter. I bought a OnePlus One in 2010 for $299 'cuz I couldn't fathom $699 for an unlocked iPhone 6 plus. Now a OnePlus Six is $529 vs. $999 for an iPhone XS. In six years they've gone from 35% of the cost to less than half... and OnePlus is selling the hardware at close to cost.