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I don't think Obama has a chance in NC. However, Romney almost certainly needs Ohio. I agree that this will be much closer than 2008, but close doesn't mean a Romney win. Romney needs to flip Ohio (assuming he gets Florida, which I think he will). I really see this coming down to "Who gets Ohio?". Of course NH, Nevada, Iowa, etc. can make up for an Ohio loss, but I can't imagine a candidate winning Ohio and yet losing most of those. It will be close, and I am glad I don't live in Ohio.