Y'all are headed for another republican win via the electoral college.While support for Trump has dropped among all three groups of White Christians analyzed in the survey, support for Biden did not see a corresponding (statistically significant) jump. One partial factor in Trump’s declining support from White Christians might be that the new survey, for the first time, gave respondents the option of saying they would vote for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen or Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. Only Trump and Biden were listed by name in the August survey.
I can't find any recent maps (best I saw was 2014), But what I think is more pertinent is religiosity in the battleground states. If 90% of California isn't religious then it simultaneously skews that result, and doesn't matter for places like Ohio. Don't mistake me, I'd love to be wrong but I'm not convinced that I am.
Sure - the more you factor the data though the more you're reading your analysis rather than the data. And yeah - there' s more Southern Death Cult members in Alabama than there are in California. But you can't go "LOL America is full of jesusfreaks therefore Trump wins." You still need six Alabamas per California.
I don't think that. Far from it, actually. But I do think a few things. 1.) Biden is not popular enough - he was the wrong candidate. I don't think anyone in the Democratic race was a good enough candidate. 2.) There are enough white Christians in battleground states that will either not vote, or vote 3rd party, and combined with 3.) The Republican's voter suppression efforts in other demographics, this will lead to enough purple states remaining red for Trump to win the Electoral College. That's what matters - Can the Democrats flip enough purple states, or usually red states that look flippable (like potentially Arizona), to make the Electoral College work for them.LOL America is full of jesusfreaks therefore Trump wins.
The whole of the Twittersphere was firmly of the opinion that Biden was the wrong candidate. Then people who aren't on Twitter showed up. Voter suppression - let's talk about that. I'm not saying Biden will win. I'm not saying Trump will lose. I'm saying everyone who thinks they know what's going to happen has made up their mind on incomplete, unknowable data. Biden sure as shit doesn't have this in the bag but voting season gives me reason to hope.
The campaign spent at least $2.5 million on the twelve ads that had the broadest reach, according to Facebook data, targeting at least 11 million voters. Other Facebook ads from Mr. Trump's campaign about getting an absentee ballot have also targeted Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania. The states represent a cross-section of so-called battlegrounds that the president won in 2016, but where recent polls have either shown a tight race or the president trailing.
Man, I hope you're right and I'm wrong, because I'm making plans to get friends across the border if it gets as bad as I think it could.