It definitely looks like something ballistic tears through the balloon: I think they modified a missile to house a dummy payload instead of an explosive. I wonder how many tests of air-to-air missile launches from F22's at 50,000+ feet there've been. Air's so much less dense up there. To maintain lift, you've really gotta go screaming through it at quite the pace. How much that might affect missile launch? Dunno. And the three balloons during the Trump era? Sounds like they went undetected by the Pentagon, but that the intel agencies either knew about them in real time or after the fact, and then proceeded to keep Trump's appointees completely un-briefed on them. I'd imagine the previous balloons/payloads were smaller, since all three avoided detection by civilians. The latest yuge balloon seems like quite the stupid play by China. Certainly, the Chinese reaction to the U.S. reaction has been laughably stupid, at least. This is already such a better discussion than anything involving all of the people too stupid to google "How high can you shoot a gun?" (it's not even 1/4 of the way up to the balloon's altitude).
Link 4 The story on the previous balloons, the way they're telling it now, is "we were aware of them but unaware of what they were." Mattis was briefed and made the call not to discuss UFOs with Trump. I'd make that call, too. There's a great Nova called "Astrospies" that's technically about the Manned Orbiting Laboratory, a spying complex that was basically killed by the KH-9 before it ever flew. In it, they make the point that the entire impetus for spy satellites was (1) Sputnik (2) Frank Powers because the USSR was very, very proud of satellite overflight of the whole goddamn world and very, very salty about aircraft overflight of portions of the USSR. As a consequence, Eisenhower asked Edwin Land if he'd be cool fading into obscurity having never worked on anything public ever again while also underpinning the whole of the United States' electrooptical intelligence satellite program. Ed Land, being Ed Land, said 'fuck yeah, fam' and then basically got released from purgatory upon the advent of the CCD. There's also a great book called Deep Black that speculates about the then not-publicly-disclosed NRO and their missions. It's fuckin' great. The author interviews Hans Mark extensively about the NRO and Hans Mark is all "well if the NRO existed they'd probably work something like this" while Hans Mark was busily running the NRO. Anyway. William Burrows (no not that one) makes the point that the more spy satellites the better because it gives you disclosure in a "cold" war. You're much less likely to freak out about stuff you know about than stuff you don't. once more I am imploring everyone to read this article dammit Annnnyway. The US and USSR had this shit figured out - spy planes bad, satellites annoying but, you know, precedent. China? China signed zero of those treaties and were invited to none of those parties because they were busy genociding intellectuals so... ...I'm sure the argument was made that balloon overflight is an "easier to ask forgiveness than permission" situation followed by "fuck forgiveness and we need no one's permission." What blows my mind is, as of this morning anyway, most of the speculation is that the payloads are mostly electro-optical. The point being that yeah, your resolution is no better than what you'd get from a semi-decent spy satellite but which is more expensive, satellites or balloons? I'm not entirely on board with this because (A) if all you care about is cameras why do you have a 40ft long array for "solar panels" (B) why the fuck are you bothering with 500lbs of solar panels when a fuckin' 8lb lithium battery will power all your electrooptical bullshit for weeks and weeks and weeks. So I think they aren't really saying what the things really are, which is 4g sniffers. You tell me - what orbit would you park a spy satellite in? Google tells me about 200 miles up and I'm too lazy to fact check. Black body decay from a 4G cellular antenna at 200 miles? nuthin'. Black body decay from a 4G cellular antenna at 13 miles? NOW we're cookin'. So look. We've been sniffing all foreign communications into and out of the United States since 2003. We've been sniffing anything over-the-air for a fuckton longer. So the Chinese can righteously say "but but but you're listening to everything we do and you keep banning Huawei and it's just not fair HRRRRNNNGGGGHHH!" and be absolutely right? And be Chinese and feel entitled to level the playing field? And quickly discover that Americans are disinterested in level playing fields. "grab every 4g communication" is a keenly Chinese approach to surveillance. "What are they gonna do, shoot it down" is a keenly Chinese attitude to discovery. And it is quintessentially Chinese policy to overreach and then double down. I doubt we're going to learn about what sort of shenanigans the US intelligence community now feels justified to pull. I'll bet it's a lot. And we're already asymmetrical AF against the Chinese.It definitely looks like something ballistic tears through the balloon:
In two other cases, the equipment carried in the balloons was determined to be destroyed. The one other balloon was undamaged. The average munitions expenditure was high: 1.4 air-to-air missiles (AAMs), 26 unguided rockets, and 112 cannon rounds per balloon. This kind of weapon use is not necessarily a problem if a large balloon is involved, but it becomes very expensive if there are several hundred of these balloons and it’s not known what kinds of payloads they carry.
The latest yuge balloon seems like quite the stupid play by China. Certainly, the Chinese reaction to the U.S. reaction has been laughably stupid, at least.
I expect they can glean some useful and important traffic/data, but it seems very opportunistic, temporary and infrequent. You think their long term strategy may be to make these things ever smaller and stealthier and much more frequent in the future? grab every 4g communication
It sounds like the balloons used to be smaller, stealthier, and more frequent in the past. Three (known) little guys during the Trump admin. I'm increasingly convinced that the primary purpose of this was to just flex and start shit. If it was a trial balloon (hurrhrurhurhurhrrrr) to see how much political infighting it would cause here in the U.S., well, major success. Because yeah, if you wanna sniff 4G, you can just develop some hackware and deploy it on a bunch of phones, right? Wanna cover a wide swath of area? Rent some cars. Drive across the country. Having bigger antennae like what the balloon might've been equipped with only makes sense for longer wavelength (than 4G) comms gathering. But yes, what a major newspiece!
I don't know if we know that. If we had multiple images from multiple geo-located times we could triangulate the size and altitude. If that were the case they would have launched from international waters off the coast of California. you cannot be serious. Right. They did that. ZTE was banned in 2018, Huawei banned in 2019, first balloon we know of flew in 2020. An observation? I was expecting a heapin' helpin' o'bullshit when Russia invaded Ukraine. I'd been dealing with Russian cyberattacks for years but nothing like what Ukraine has been dealing with. And yet - as soon as the VDV got in planes, Russian cyberattacks dropped to zero. It's almost as if the US was letting the Russians fuck around just to see what they had and then as soon as the rubber met the road, the Russians were kicked out of the pool. It's abundantly clear that the Chinese want to spy on everyone through their technology. What the timeline suggests is that the US shitfit over Huawei has been effective. Probably not 100%? But quite possibly effective enough to encourage the Chinese to try alternative methods of signals intelligence. Where "some" and "area" are proportional, and where the odds of discovery multiply with every agent in the field. You wanna talk shitfit, imagine the jingoistic dumpster fire if some Montana state trooper pulled over a Hertz full of Chinese nationals and surveillance gear. Now imagine if, say, multiple states were involved. Fucker Carlson would be screaming for internment camps within minutes. Indeed. Let's be clear: if I'm violating airspace for intelligence gathering, I'm gathering all the intelligence, from DC to light, in every direction. If I'm gonna risk it, I'm gonna amortize that risk. Chicken/egg: (the balloon has a 30m pylon for solar panels)/(the 30m VLF array is perfect for solar panels).It sounds like the balloons used to be smaller, stealthier, and more frequent in the past. Three (known) little guys during the Trump admin.
I'm increasingly convinced that the primary purpose of this was to just flex and start shit.
If it was a trial balloon (hurrhrurhurhurhrrrr) to see how much political infighting it would cause here in the U.S., well, major success.
Because yeah, if you wanna sniff 4G, you can just develop some hackware and deploy it on a bunch of phones, right?
Wanna cover a wide swath of area? Rent some cars.
Having bigger antennae like what the balloon might've been equipped with only makes sense for longer wavelength (than 4G) comms gathering.
I agree about the tactic but the timing is way-off for that in my opinion. I think Xi is trying to lessen tension - stalling for time to try and figure out how to counter the tech freeze. Hence the plan to meet Blinken personally. Stirring up shit like this might be effective after the diplomatic visit but not before. I've read theories about CCP in-fighting and (anti-Xi faction) sabotage but here's an interesting and plausible alternative explanation - at least for me timestamp is 11:50 if it doesn't start in the right place. I'm increasingly convinced that the primary purpose of this was to just flex and start shit.
That's archetypal Chinese misdirection. If it's a success, Xi did it. If it's a failure, it's because a "regional governor" fucked up. COVID, bird flu, crypto bans, poison dog food, that shit goes back to Mao who copied it from Stalin, who learned it from Lenin, who learned it from Machiavelli. The balloon program is run off Hainan Island, which boasts a sub base that doesn't exist among other treasures.
"very opportunistic, temporary and infrequent" are the fundamentals of Chinese espionage. Here's a xerox out of Nick Eftimiades "Chinese Intelligence Operations." It's an org chart for one part of the MSS. Eftimiades has about seven of these in that book. Compare and contrast with SOCOM: Compare and contrast with the CIA: There are two approaches towards intelligence gathering by the Chinese, one with regards to Chinese nationals, and one with regards to foreigners. With Chinese nationals, the basic approach is "you'll do what we tell you or your family will suffer." This goes all the way down to "you have booked a vacation abroad to Milwaukee, take lots of pictures at this brewery and give them to us or your family will suffer." It goes all the way down to "since you're a traitor to your family by taking a semester abroad, you will attend every meeting you can to opportunistically talk about how great China is." It doesn't go much higher, though, because the Chinese do not consider other cultures to be cultures. Thus, they don't embed in other cultures, they don't work their way into other cultures. Their methods are entirely opportunistic. On the other hand, foreigners are plied with largesse in exchange for information, which often includes booking people into luxury hotels where they are under constant audiovisual surveillance. Rarely, if ever, blackmail. Fundamentally, "ask a lot of questions and break promises" is the methodology. I have a buddy who was wined and dined for six weeks about cinematography because a Chinese company wanted to come out with rip-offs of American equipment but needed an insider's view to make sure they understood what they were even looking at. I myself was flattered relentlessly as soon as I displayed any acumen for casting and metal printing... and dropped like a hot rock as soon as I revealed any skepticism of the Chinese ability to deliver. I honestly think that Anycubic canceled a product based on my reaction to it. Tik Tok is a quintessential Chinese intelligence program. They took an American app that couldn't profit, subsidized it, and use it to get into everyone's phone. Do they need everyone's phone? No. Do they know whose phone they need? No. But if it comes in handy they can flip a switch. Compare and contrast to how the (US-trained) Saudi Intelligence agency got to Khashoggi: they hit at least one of his casual friends and at least one of his fiancee's casual friends with Pegasus because they knew he was too cagey to get hit with Pegasus. The US and Israel will target two or three key guys and be surgical about it. The Chinese and Iranians will shotgun (China: TikTok on every phone; Iran, handfuls of jump drives with malware scattered about the Pentagon parking lot). Long-term? I think their long-term plan was to not get caught. Our long-term plan with the U2 was to not get shot down. Even after that our long-term plan was faster-higher-sneakier (A-12/SR-71) even in teeth of the USSR's faster-higher-sneakier response. Which do you think is easier, a plane that will go Mach 3 or a missile that will go Mach 4? We built 'em anyway.
