- I think the overwhelming majority of geopolitics right now are driven by scarcity. The Syrian civil war was the modern world's first water war. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a demographic issue. China's wolf warrior politics are an outcome of their exit from "developing market" status - there's a reason Apple is decamping for India. There are ample practical reasons to presume we hit Peak Oil in 2000 or so - fracking simply isn't a thing at $35/bbl. Scarcity causes war.

- Armed conflict in the current political climate is more unpredictable than it's been for generations for the simple fact that the Russians are assed out. I mean, just yesterday Armenia said they'd give up Karabakh in exchange for Azerbaijan not kicking their ass... and that whole dynamic only went kinetic because the Russians are no longer in the picture.

- The Chinese are likely loath to switch from "theoretical threat" to "practical threat" because uncertainty is a lot of their cachet right now. I guarantee you that Belgorod is in play for the simple reason that Khinzals are utterly ineffective against Patriots and Russia has shown themselves to be strategically and tactically incompetent. Ukraine is about to get a bunch of F-16s for the simple fact that Russia sucks. Should China be shown to suck - as they invariably are - their influence in the world will again diminish.