I thought this was some dumb space denial ploy because if you set off a nuke in orbit what you get are radiation bands that persist for months or years cooking every satellite that crosses them. A lot of the "ZOMFG electromagnetic pulse" bullshit favored by the preppers comes from a misinterpretation of the results of pumping the Van Allen belts with ionizing radiation.
My thinking was that Russians use Molniya orbits far more than any other space-faring nation (because they're cheap). This gives them the advantage of spending only 20% or so of their time in the orbits that they would theoretically trash for everyone else, giving them more survivability in the event of an ionized theater. But a few folx I trust rolled their eyes and pointed out that Putin clearly has some crazy-eyed version of Edward Teller whispering in his ear and that the most likely thing is nuclear-pumped-X-ray-laser-bullshit.
- Super-Excalibur would be so powerful it would be able to burn through the atmosphere, thereby countering the concerns about fast-firing missiles. The extra power also meant it could be divided up into more beams, making a single weapon able to be directed into as many as a hundred thousand beams. Instead of dozens of Excalibur weapons in pop-up launchers, Teller suggested that a single weapon in geostationary orbit "the size of an executive desk which applied this technology could potentially shoot down the entire Soviet land-based missile force if it were to be launched into the module's field of view."
Sho' nuff:
- The Russian government has experimented with the use of nuclear explosions or directed energy to disable satellites, according to one U.S. official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. Experts have raised concerns that a nation could detonate a nuclear weapon in space to interfere with satellites through the emission of radiation.
So here's your thought experiment:
- Be Russian
- Be a research scientist
- Be given the task of cobbling together a proof-of-concept for Dear Leader
- Be knowing your entire arsenal hasn't been tested since 1990
- Be knowing it's been maintained by thieves and conscripts ever since
- Be knowing your country tried to loft a 1MW CO2 laser 40 goddamn years ago so really, there's nothing pragmatic to be discussed here
- Be also knowing that 1MW laser suffered a "math oopsie" not unlike certain other math oopsies
Do YOU want to speedrun the Strategic Defense Initiative on 2024 Russian budgets?
Any nuke set off in low Earth orbit, where all the military stuff is, presumably, would cook a few satellites in the nearby vicinity, but the rad belts are further out. Only LEO stuff with a high orbital inclination (i.e. passing through the auroral zone) would see prolonged exposure. We build military stuff with some pretty beefy rad shielding, I'm sure. Jupiter's natural radiation environment is pretty crazy too, we had to thicken up everything for JUNO. Dat magnetosphere. But yes, it does worry me that a detonation of an intercepted nuke or two in space could knock out enough military satellites to initiate a chain of events that would play out no better than if the first nuke or two had made it to their targets. I guess a lot of it depends on if the things go off or not. It would not surprise me to learn that the Russians build their nukes with something like a deadman's switch, where if anything went wrong, it was rigged to blow, whereas the Responsible Nuclear Arsenal would only detonate if it knew it'd reached its target. The directed photon thing would require enough precision that I do question whether or not the Russians are capable of developing it properly. The speed of light would be non-negligible, you'd have to aim ahead of anything you're trying to hit. It's one thing to aim for a satellite you've been tracking for days, months, or years vs. an ICBM (or multiple) with about a 20 minute window to detect, track, and aim for. And actually, I think directed photon beams are our best chance to de-orbit space junk, which would require even more precise tracking and beam directivity 'cuz most of that shit is on the order of a millimeter. So I hope it's being developed for non-military applications (he said, knowing full well that it's already out there in military use by at least one country. edit: now I'm thinking about an ICBM capable of little jittery movements in space to evade this scenario. You could course correct once you got back down into atmosphere thick enough to absorb most stuff up in the X-ray regime. You'd need some hella powerful impulse thrusters, though. Now that sounds like a fun project.
I have enjoyed watching you outline 15 years of SDI in three paragraphs. My father was tracking satellites during Starfish Prime. Three of the four satellites he was tracking were taken out by radiation belts. The problem with nuclear explosions is they send energy, radiation and particles in Newtonian directions from the point of origin, which then orbit the planet in a Newtonian fashion. Starfish Prime was 1.4MT at 400km and it lit up the Van Allen belts and made some nasty artificial radiation belts of its own. I think it's safe to say that wherever the Russians lit off their theoretical candle, it'd pollute a big chunk of the airspace there for a while. Most people who looked at Project Excalibur at the time doubted whether LLNL were capable of developing it properly, and they had a blank check. It's a dumb fucking idea. The bugabear of SDI was "how 'bout we just quadruple our decoys" because if the Russians sent up twice as many lumps of shit as they sent up warheads, they double their effectiveness against countermeasures without appreciably increasing their expense or sophistication. The bugabear of the '80s, the R-39 (or "SS-N-20 Sturgeon" as reported in Soviet Military Power), famously carried up to ten warheads. Realistic load-out was two or three with seven or eight decoys. Meanwhile, there are rumors that the MIRVs in the Topol M are capable of evasive maneuvers but it appears your choices are 3-4 ballistic MIRVs or 1 that can wiggle.
Oh good, I guess I'm on the right track, I just hadn't really sat down for a few minutes and thought about it in a while. Welp, I'm off to mumble "I'M THE WEAPON" to myself and plaster a bunch of Punisher stickers on my car.
I agree with you, its silly to even hope BUT: Somehow the ultra far right republicans at least claim to be against it, since its a tool of the deep state that the FBI really likes and they want to piss off the FBI. So I've been clinging to that even tho realistically it's never going to happen, and its funny in a sort of horseshoe theory way to think about the nutjobs accidentally being the only people in congress on my side
"intergalactic nuclear weapon" sung to the tune of Weee gonna take a SHOT Our space laser's SOOPER HOT It ain't HERE it's way out THERE WILL it WORK? FUCKING NOT Intergalactic Nuclearweapon Nuclearweapon Intergalactic