Thanks for the shoutout. I wonder if a VEI-8 eruption is something that we can reasonably plan for. For example, when the Yellowstone caldera blows again the US will cease to exist as we know it, and the effects of the ash-cloud upon global food production would cause starvation across the globe. Perhaps we don't plan because there is no effective plan to be had? I think it's worth mentioning that ground water would still be drinkable, however. There were a few weeks a couple of years ago where there was an increase in earthquake activity under Yellowstone Lake. At that time, I considered what would be a reasonable plan of action here in Michigan. I just learned this from Wikipedia: I always imagined that it was simply a matter of pressure building to a breaking point. I didn't know there was a catalyst component.The volcanic eruptions, as well as the continuing geothermal activity, are a result of a great cove of magma located below the caldera's surface. The magma in this cove contains gases that are kept dissolved only by the immense pressure that the magma is under. If the pressure is released to a sufficient degree by some geological shift, then some of the gases bubble out and cause the magma to expand. This can cause a runaway reaction. If the expansion results in further relief of pressure, for example, by blowing crust material off the top of the chamber, the result is a very large gas explosion.
I outlined some of my thoughts on how we should move forward with the knowledge that supervolcanoes are a thing we are likely to encounter if we don't kill ourselves first:We may not be able to predict supervolcanic eruptions, but a recent study published in the journal Nature indicates that there are characteristic processes that occur decades (perhaps even a century) before a major eruption. If volcanologists can gain a better understanding of these pre-eruption processes, we may be able to detect the next supereruption decades before the event. This would at least give us time to prepare (possibly avert?) disaster. Yet we have no official plan to deal with VEI-8 eruptions. Even the Long Now Foundation, an organization focused on promoting a 10,000 year framework to build our global civilization has no official stance or plan for dealing with a VEI-8 eruption. So what should we do? I would argue that our current knowledge of past supervolcanic eruption events indicate that they pose a significant risk to global stability. I also feel that it would be enormously irresponsible if our species did not develop a program analogous to the NASA PHO effort. So here is what I propose we must do:
1. We must gain as much data and knowledge of past supervolcanic eruptions as possible.
2. We must attempt to understand whether supervolcanic eruptions occur in any recognizable pattern on geologic time scales so that we can roughly estimate when we should expect the next major eruption.
3. We must fund volcanology research into better understanding the processes that occur decades (and even centuries) before a major eruption.
4. And we must start to hypothesize about technology and/or methods that could be used to prevent supervolcanic eruptions.
Thoughts on averting it? We'd have to apply artificial pressure to the air inside the chamber, which seems ridiculously difficult. (As an aside, a book I now vow to write, no matter how scientifically inaccurate: is the story of the most dedicated suicide bomber of all time, who penetrated our defenses around the Yellowstone caldera and blew it up by releasing the pressure.)
The interesting thing is that computer simulations of these scenarios should be able to give us a good idea of what approach to take.
That sounds awesome!!! Write it!!! I would love to help if you have any questions or you need someone to go over a draft. Check out the BBC docudrama about a Yellowstone eruption for some ideas as well!