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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  4833 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: China's nearly bankrupt?
China, as with much of the far east, operates on a three-cornered legal system. We're unfamiliar with it because we see "legal and illegal" whereas in China, Vietnam, Korea, Japan, Laos and Thailand, there's "legal, illegal and quasi-legal." The Western thinking on Yakuza, for example, is "organized crime." It's more accurate to say that the yakuza is part mafia, part freemason, and part social club. They print business cards, for fuck's sake. As such, in Eastern economies it's not unusual for the equivalent of the Shriners to shake down property owners for protection. On the books, this is illegal. In reality, it fills in a lot of the gaps in functionality between what is legal and what is not.

Japan, in the go-go '80s when the Yakuza were really flourishing, also had massive real estate speculation. The quasi-legality of it all amplified the effect. The Tongs, meanwhile, have grown rather nicely under the westernization of China:

http://www.amazon.com/Blood-Brothers-Criminal-Underworld-Asi...

China, in a nutshell, is a managed central government attempting to take a billion people from feudalism to capitalism in three generations. I'm unaware of any other sociopolitical work of that magnitude in the history of the world. As a result, when they fuck up they fuck up royally. The Chinese real estate market is an excellent example.

At the same time, no other economy can go "you know what? We're going to take a couple steps back towards feudalism" to solve their problems. People will starve, exports will crash, dissidents will be executed and thousands will die in coal mines but that's kind of how China rolls.

China did say "you're on your own guys" when the EU asked them to add liquidity to the Greek crisis. Anybody credible can see that China is in a bubble (Mauldin has blinders on).





mk  ·  4831 days ago  ·  link  ·  
At the same time, no other economy can go "you know what? We're going to take a couple steps back towards feudalism" to solve their problems. People will starve, exports will crash, dissidents will be executed and thousands will die in coal mines but that's kind of how China rolls.

I wonder if this might be changing, however. A lot of very wealthy Chinese are now traveling about the world, and have been for the last several years. Their expectations have changed. Also, there are a lot of entrepreneurs that are now symbols of national pride. If government starts to rain on this parade, this time, the CCP might look like the a jealous and ineffective player that is holding China back.

Personally, I doubt the CCP will survive the coming downturn.

kleinbl00  ·  4831 days ago  ·  link  ·  
You've been there; I haven't. I've always presumed the society was stratified enough for all sorts of nasty shit to happen without the upper class saying "boo." Am I mistaken?
mk  ·  4831 days ago  ·  link  ·  
I'd say Yes and No. I don't think they yet have an established culture of social activism, and when it comes to public spaces and resources, there is definitely a every person for himself/herself way of things. However, many people are like my brother-in-law, who grew up burning coal for heat and now drives a BMW. (Funny, I think the wealthiest people I know are in China.) These people travel all over the world now. Due to the CCP and the Cultural Revolution, wealth doesn't go back in any family very far. There is a real pride in what has been accomplished in the last decade, and I don't think the government gets much credit for it.

When I was there last year, one of our cabbies launched an anti-government tirade, blaming them for inflation and the high cost of housing. -That would not have happened 10 years ago.

I think because the government likes to be the authority on so much, they also get to take the blame for so much.

kleinbl00  ·  4830 days ago  ·  link  ·  
I get that. At the same time, that seems to be where they were in 1989, as well; from what I've seen of Tienamen Square, the Party was pretty much at "we'll agree to gradual reforms" and the Movement was pretty much at "shut.it.DOWN" so the CPP was all "well, we've got tanks" and that was that.

My sense of the PRC is that it's a managed economy where they're doing their level best to bridge the 14th and 21st centuries as quickly as they can; if that means getting medieval from time to time, it's par for the course.

mk  ·  4830 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Perhaps. I am far from an expert on their national character. It's amazing to me that Tienanmen happened, actually. My brother-in-law sat in on them, but that wasn't in Beijing. It actually happened across the country, but we just hear about Tienanmen.

At any rate, I'm pretty sure that we are going to see something interesting in the next several years.

My wife was apolitical in China, but I think I've biased her here. :)