The link

mk was all psyched and shit because the technical analysis (AKA entrail scrivening) of the S&P vs. Barclay's and DB matched his own. When I looked at his analysis I was unconvinced it wasn't due to selective windowing. Not saying there isn't a correlation, just saying that I'm not a firm believer in causation. From the article:

This analysis suggests we need the combination of three conditions for us to be confident the next default cycle is around the corner. We need the accumulation of excessive debt and preferably of deteriorating quality, some kind of external shock/trigger and a sharp flattening of the yield curve.

Yield curve be flat. Junk bonds be shit. Alls we needs is that wonderful "external shock." Hey, how 'bout:

Of particular concern was the market for high-yield (or junk) bonds issued by oil and gas companies.

As the price of oil plunged below $30 in January and February, investors rushed to sell debt issued by companies that needed expensive oil to stay profitable.

Saudi oil minister says fuck yer oil cuts, also Iran isn't going to the summit

Not saying this will be it - but oil jumped to its 2016 peak yesterday over the announcement that the Saudis would be making a deal.

"Forget about this topic," he told the paper, when asked about any possible reduction in his country's production.

Wanna see what an existential economic struggle looks like?

So the question is: if the European economy is dependent on Saudi Arabia toeing the line, and if Saudi Arabia is the country that brought you UBL and 16 of the 18 9/11 hijackers, how likely is it that at some point soon, the European economy is in for, well, not a nasty surprise, but a nasty eventuality?