So I'm graduating in 12-18 months. How screwed do you think I am?an absolute catastrophe if we don't get rid of it in 12-18 months"
If you get into a job and start before it all blows up you will be ok or at least your odds are better. If you graduate after... Well I hope you get along with your parents... Cuz yeah... Things didn't work out all that great for the last group to graduate into a recession.
Frankly, I think we're all fucked in weeks not months based on the frequency of oh-shit mumblings. Which means you'll be in college when the shit hits the fan. mk is a straight-up bitbug. He thinks that shit's gonna go through the roof. I hope he's right but I have little confidence in the rational cause:effect nature of markets. Kinda like how the news on BTC was all bad this weekend and the news on ETH was all good and ETH still took a giant shit.
I think you are probably early in your prediction. Things were starting to look bad in the summer of 07. Summer of 08 we has wonky instability and even when we had bear sterns, it took another couple months for the market to figure out how bad things were. We have a couple major turds in the hopper that are getting ready to hit the fan but they haven't really exploded or shown up on balance sheets. Fracker defaults have been mostly contained so far and banks haven't taken large losses. Auto subprime is just starting to gain traction and zombies corporations haven't started to default yet.
To you and to veen's point. We have a fuck-ton of student debt which is already largely not being paid. Okay. The economy tanks (globally - but what about in the US?) and suddenly you have even more recent graduates with no way of making payments and no end in sight. Defer the payments, be under-employed or not employed at all, and have years of not actually paying back those loans. Does that bubble then pop, too?Frankly, I think we're all fucked in weeks not months based on the frequency of oh-shit mumblings. Which means you'll be in college when the shit hits the fan.
Right? mk and I were discussing what the next bailout looks like when interest rates are already effectively zero. I think that depending on who's in office, a student loan debt jubilee (probably not total, but certainly partial) would probably be the easiest, most effective stimulus to pass. Most student loans are government-originated and even the private ones have a government component.
There won't be student loan forgiveness just don't see it. It would go against America capitalist values. Bankruptcy allowance maybe but forgiveness no. The next bailout is already happening you just missed the announcement. The current fed rate of 25 to 50 bps in a Negative rate environment is a stealth bank bailout. The fed is paying banks more than the maket rate to hold money and effectively subsidies the banks.