I have a few feeds for autonomous vehicle related news. Sometimes I come across articles that I consider posting here, but ultimately don't because there are only a few interesting tidbits hidden behind useless blog filler.
This WSJ article is an archetypical example of that. But I think the few interesting points in it are worth telling / talking about, so instead of not sharing I'm going to walk through the article and annotate it with my input on the subject matter.
Why Cities Aren't Ready for the Driverless Car - Wall Street Journal
- When it comes to adopting self-driving cars and trucks, the easiest part may well be building them. The far more difficult task will be maintaining our urban transportation infrastructures for autonomous vehicles to be functional, safe and practical.
Ah, finally someone asking the right questions, I naïvely thought. As someone from an urban planning background, I find this question one of the most interesting. Automated vehicles becoming popular in a few years can be a similar shift as from horses to cars. There's bound to be shifts in how people use it and interact with vehicles in an urban setting. If it's up to me I'll do my graduate thesis on something like this question next year:
- What will cities have to do to get ready for the transition to the autonomous car?
As a basic assumption, we're talking about fully autonomous vehicles - so no driver's license needed, a possibly Uber-style service, providing mobility on demand. He doesn't make this explicit, but since he mentions later on that the cars can drive themselves to a parking spot, that's the assumption you need. I'm going to use the Google car for examples here.
- For starters, they will have to maintain everything from complex intersections to lane markings to the specifications expected by vehicle software designers. Without a city’s commitment to certain standards, self-driving autos might freeze in place on streets lacking clear lane markings. Similarly, unmanned vehicles might proceed at speed through an intersection where a stop sign has been removed by college students or knocked down the night before by an impaired human.
Maintenance and complex intersections! Great points. Depending on how heavily autonomous vehicles rely on detailed logged maps or on-the-spot processing, this can be a minor or major issue respectively. A sidenote here is that AV's that only use lane markings and signs for their 'road logic' are probably not good enough for most real world information. Looking at what other drivers and people do in any intersection is also key at understanding a place. I saw a demo by Daimler a while ago that would use cameras to track pedestrian movement. The car would model the direction that pedestrians were turning their head, since people who intend to cross the street (including jaywalkers) turn their head to look for oncoming cars. Not using information like that and sticking to the rules means your car will run over that pedestrian.
But that kind of thinking through the situations is not very prominent in this article, because he follows it up with this:
- Traffic rules may be writ in stone, but the autonomous car or truck should also understand local practice. If in a particular city it is customary for trucks to double-park while making deliveries, will the driverless vehicle coming up behind a stopped truck think (in software terms) that it is at a stop light and wait there for the unseen light to change?
The first sentence is, again, a good and serious concern. How do you develop AI that can distinguish between local quirks and global behaviours? The example is, to put it lightly, confusing. It suggests the vehicle doesn't recognize a truck (not a small vehicle I'll have you know) but does recognize its tail lights as traffic lights. That's what I think he's suggesting - a confused vehicle that doesn't understand the simplest and most easily recognizable blocked road situation.
Next up, we have the 'someone didn't do their homework' part of the article:
- And in cities where it is customary for human drivers to anticipate the red light turning to green by inching into the intersection prematurely, will the driverless automobile allow for the custom? [...] Driverless cars can be programmed to be aggressive or patient. But who gets to choose? The software developer? The owner? Or perhaps the local police department?
Hitting two birds with one article.. (Relevant part is in the 'More Agressive' paragraph)
- But upon sensing the yellow when almost into the intersection, will the driverless car stop suddenly or will it speed up?
smh
- Will the car be programmed to respond differently when it is carrying passengers, comparing in milliseconds the risk of both actions and choosing the one less likely to cause injury?
Why, exactly, wouldn't it be programmed to choose whatever causes the least injury? Also, injury to whom? (By the way: the whole trolley problem thing was somewhat addressed by Chris Urmson in his recent SXSW talk. He said that the car avoids hitting the most vulnerable users first.)
- But the ultimate testing will necessarily take place in real cities under real traffic conditions that test tracks can hardly be expected to replicate fully.
You mean like almost all of the serious tests that are being done right now? Gosh, what a surprise. Next, the author switches gears to briefly discuss vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication:
- It also means that increasing and maintaining the wireless-bandwidth capacity used by cars in traffic to communicate will become a responsibility as important as smooth roads and clear signage. The wireless network will have to be pervasive and fast enough to allow for adequate response times to, say, jaywalking pedestrians or erratic cyclists.
Again, it has a good part and a bad part. The bad part is that he completely fails to explain his assumptions - yes, if V2V becomes the real deal and if most vehicles actually actively use it in urban settings and if these V2V communication networks (that already have a part of the bandwith spectrum reserved) aren't cleared good enough and if these cars don't spot suprise jaywalkers in time, then maintaining that network is critical to save the jaywalker that regular cars would probably hit.
- These are issues that must be resolved before autonomous vehicles are turned loose on the asphalt.
No, not really. V2V is only a solution, not the solution. Case in point, again: the Google car. I had to do a double-take, but yes, this article is written in 2016. Four days ago, actually.
- Proponents of driverless vehicles focus—sometimes too much—on the benefits the vehicles offer to both individuals and the communities in which those individuals live.
Good point. The debate doesn't always go into discussing environmental issues, into the likelihood of induced demand or on any other externalities.
- Whether cities will even allow self-driving vehicles will depend mainly on public policy. Despite its popularity as a touring aid in some cities, the Segway—a self-balancing electric scooter—has failed to find acceptance in the broad transportation market in part because there is little uniformity among communities regarding rules governing its use.
See? He does it again. He starts off with an interesting, debateable observation and then writes something inane. If you can't tell from my writing, I'm quite frustrated by articles like this. The interaction of autonomous vehicles with urban policy is very interesting. I can totally imagine some cities to heavily restrict or ban the vehicles in dense, complex areas, or countries limiting them to special roadways. That would've been a much more interesting point to discuss than to haul in the most useless transportation method ever invented:
- In the postdigital age, drafters of municipal legislation may be looking at an extended legal battle to redefine what a driver is, and what that driver’s responsibilities and liabilities are.
Since when does municipal legislation define that? There are multiple national organizations working this one out, with the EU and the US working on legislation that allows driver-free vehicles on public roads. Note how that second, easily-Googled link is also from WSJ.
Better luck next time, professor.
My thoughts on this are complex and involved and probably lend themselves to list format. They are also going to be verbose. Know that I'm fighting that verbosity with a cudgel and a machete, and that I'm doing my level best not to use bullet points. First, I have subscribed to your newsletter. I find it entertaining that you chose to link to me ragging on the Segway, rather than the comment just up the page where I practically begged you to do exactly this: To be clear, I appreciate this, I encourage you to continue with this, and I consider it a valuable service to hubski in particular and humanity at large and wish to remind you publicly that I've been a big booster of this particular thesis for something like four years now. So. Dive in, rock on, vaya con dios. BUT C'mon, man. This is Henry Petroski. I'm a big fan of Petroski. Dude wrote The Evolution of Useful Things, which I nagged you to read not two months ago: In fact, I'm halfway convinced I put that book in your very hands not a year ago. Petroski is the kind of dude who can sell an entire book on the history of the pencil. In the Evolution of Useful Things he makes a compelling argument that the fucking fork created the middle class in renaissance Europe. So no, he's not an AV junkie, aficionado, advocate or expert. But he's a hell of a mile-high kinda guy. And your blind spot on this, I think, is that you see Petroski asking questions as if they're unanswered... rather than seeing it as Petroski asking questions that will be answered multiple ways. Just as a reminder: 434 pages on the PENCIL. I can only imagine what the article looked like before the WSJ edited it. In fact, I suggest you as a graduate student in autonomous vehicles to write the guy at Duke and ask him. Because here's you: Here's Petroski: Worthy of note: Google ain't focusing on head-tracking. Tesla ain't focusing on head-tracking. Nissan ain't focusing on head-tracking. Daimler is. So could there theoretically be a municipality that passes a law allowing head-tracking AVs to run yellow lights? Tell me you haven't seen weirder legislation. Okay, I'm kinda with you on the Segway jab. I'd argue that Segways haven't found acceptance because they're all the utility of a bicycle at two orders of magnitude more expense. But if I were trying to come up with a "disruptive" technology whose acceptance has been hampered by legislation I'd probably end up pointing at a Segway, too. Either that or burning 2500 words explaining why scooters are popular everywhere but the US. I mean, you've got an engineering professor in the Wall Street Journal whose editor has required him to explain what a Segway even is. That there's no easy thing to point to for parallel argument demonstrates that this is something nobody's thinking about much. And that's the gist of the article - "nobody is thinking about this much". Instead we're looking at Youtube videos of Teslas nearly running into things and going "woo hoo! Driverless cars are just around the corner!" instead of recognizing that the probable eventuality is a massive publicly-funded FAA-grade "ground traffic control system" that is going to radically alter our landscape. So yes. Please continue to do these. And know that I will be grilling you on every one. ;-) I saw a demo by Daimler a while ago that would use cameras to track pedestrian movement. The car would model the direction that pedestrians were turning their head, since people who intend to cross the street (including jaywalkers) turn their head to look for oncoming cars. Not using information like that and sticking to the rules means your car will run over that pedestrian.
Many potential problems can already be handled by vehicles equipped with sensors, controls and warning devices to assist in changing lanes, slowing down or stopping, if vehicles get too close to one another. Cities also can make their traffic signals communicate wirelessly with vehicles. But naturally that involves spending money that may have to be diverted from fixing potholes and other infrastructural necessities.
Whether cities will even allow self-driving vehicles will depend mainly on public policy. Despite its popularity as a touring aid in some cities, the Segway—a self-balancing electric scooter—has failed to find acceptance in the broad transportation market in part because there is little uniformity among communities regarding rules governing its use.
Please do! Because I totally didn't realize it was that Henry Petroski, I took the article at face value. I thought he wasn't a very good author, but it seems now almost certain that he had an inadequate editor. That doesn't diminish the terribleness of the article much, though - it mostly shifts the blame onto WSJ. What prompted me to write this in this specific format was to contrast the good and bad parts of the article. It's the Hubski version of a running commentary. So if anyone wants to roll with that idea, be my guest. I agree with you that the problems surrounding this topic have many aspects and multiple ways of advancing. The way I see it is that there is One Big Question that AV's attempt to answer: how do we convert human driving intelligence into machine driving intelligence? Every example or situation (or even trolley problem) is an extension of that question, and all the manifestations of automated technology are potential answers to it. My main point of criticism is that this article never makes that clear, because if that were clear, it means that you need to specify what part of the question and what sort of answer you're talking about. A Google car (answer) in a double-parked situation (question) is in an entirely different league than driving on the highway (question) in an Audi with ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems, an answer). This is why I hammered on the assumptions being made and the situations being discussed in the article, and how the article does a terrible job of it. I agree, but a more fair assesment would be that the attention on this topic is disproportionally small. The 1600-page tome has 38 pages on implications for the future, and I know a few articles that are thinking about this so I'm not a lone wolf here. It also needs to be noted that this research question is built upon the assumption that automated technology will move quite far beyond fancy cruise controls. (Just putting that on record here.) Maybe it's my Dutch urban planning background, but I think that people have forgotten the tremendous impact on cities and transportation of postwar mass car adoption. In the case of American cities, most of which are built around cars, I still think this can be an interesting and major shift. Interesting way of putting it. How do you see this playing out?And know that I will be grilling you on every one. ;-)
And your blind spot on this, I think, is that you see Petroski asking questions as if they're unanswered... rather than seeing it as Petroski asking questions that will be answered multiple ways.
That there's no easy thing to point to for parallel argument demonstrates that this is something nobody's thinking about much. And that's the gist of the article - "nobody is thinking about this much".
instead of recognizing that the probable eventuality is a massive publicly-funded FAA-grade "ground traffic control system"
Why are we trying to convert human driving intelligence into machine form? Why not allow these machines and algorithms to learn the best courses of actions to take to reduce accidents without trying to impose things like "you should hit the car instead of the bus of school-children"? You've made a system that learns how to best manage situations, you don't turn around and undercut the decisions this system makes in order to appease people proposing absurd hypothetical scenarios.how do we convert human driving intelligence into machine driving intelligence?
Two reasons - machine intelligence is still a long way from being capable of human-level reasoning. Most of what we have now (that works well) is very simple-minded, brute-force approaches to reasoning (i.e. expert systems). Second reason - we don't NEED human-level reasoning to make good progress in self-driving. As an example, a huge first step in this process happened long ago, and has hardly any innate intelligence at all - the automatic transmission.Why not allow these machines and algorithms to learn the best courses of actions
Most self driving systems today are using neural networks, I don't think expert systems would be able to manage the complex issues that pop up with driving. As a result, I don't think we could really understand all the nuances that these systems are capable of knowing once they have been trained for so long to drive. It's easy to create a network that learns to do a task relative to learning how the completed system is thinking. These aren't brute force approaches anymore, there is a system that is learning as time passes, and getting better at what it does as time continues forward. As such, these networks have one job, and do that one job very well. In this case that job is to prevent crashes. Fiddle with that network to impose artificial limitations and you impose on a system optimized to do something, and more crashes will result in the long run. Although I'm sure there are cases where things go wrong with the program, or things need tweaked, these aren't the same as directly interfering with the car when it decides to take a course of action that could lead to hitting a schoolbus vs a normal car. It may well be that hitting the schoolbus causes less total harm for some reason, and we be sure that we understand the reasoning of the machine before we decide to mess with it.
No offense intended, but colour me skeptical - can you support this? I believe there's a lot of research into neural networks for pedstrian identification etc, but I've never seen any indication that (for example) Google Chauffeur uses neural networks at all. Again, they appear to be throwing brute-force at the problem. [edit] Details about self-driving software are hard to find; however, I did find this little hint (from this article http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/autonomous-driverless-car-brain/ )Most self driving systems today are using neural networks
Yet as smart as today's cars may seem, they are cognitive toddlers. In a car brain, software, processors and an operating system need to run algorithms that determine what the car should do, and these decisions must be made quickly.
Nvidia thinks so: http://www.nvidia.com/object/drive-px.html Within a journalistic article like this, neural networks more than fit this definition. They are, after all, just a bunch of big arrays with a bunch of weights and activation functions.In a car brain, software, processors and an operating system need to run algorithms that determine what the car should do
Any system that assists or replaces driving is a system that converts a bit of human intelligence into machine driving intelligence. I mean, we can have a discussion about semantics and heuristics but that is what I meant with that statement. The interesting challenge to me is how we do this. Is that what you're alluding to? There is an interesting debate going on about whether automated systems should assist or replace human drivers. I recently read an interesting article that proposed a human-machine interaction with the 'horseman analogy', where your car has rules and can take some basic actions on its own (like a horse), and you as the horseman have the final say and decide on the general course.
I assumed you were referring to the idea of machines needing to know "human morality" in order to replace human actions, and was saying that machines shouldn't have our morality imposed on them, they should be allowed to come to decisions naturally based on the learning algorithms they are built with. I ultimately think human drivers should be entirely replaced by machine drivers. The horse-driver analogy is interesting, but ultimately it defeats the purpose of the self driving car. I think it makes a good stopgap, though.
I still maintain that you're experiencing your first instance of "professional disappointment" - when you read a popular discourse on a subject that you know enough to be an expert about and the focus of the author isn't the one you'd choose. Display technology articles in Scientific American used to give me headaches, and of the two people I know who have written in Sciam, both of them hated the fuck out of the end result (and generally hate what everyone else has to say in their field). That's the problem with populism - your publication automatically dumbs your words down to the lowest common denominator and whatever you, the expert, may think it requires too much basis of knowledge in order to refute. This is an article written for people who literally think As you yourself pointed out - there are good things in this article and there are bad. With nearly everything else it's all bad. You're disappointed that the article isn't better because it was good enough to get your hopes up. Get used to that - it's going to happen more and more often. I also think the "big question" is different from what you think - I don't think AVs are a question of converting human driving intelligence into machine driving intelligence, I think it's a question of intermutability between individual transit and mass transit. A car is an autonomous vehicle piloted by a lone human. It's part of a larger system but the links of that system are ad-hoc. A self-driving car is on a spectrum between autonomous and fully-dependent - on freeway or commuter flows it's a fully-integrated part of a mass transit system. On local flows it's an extension of a larger transit system. That this spectrum cannot be bridged by humans is the core of the problem - we have trains and we have cars and in between we have buses but from a transport perspective, those three things are discrete modes of transportation. Throw AVs into the mix and the distinction blends, particularly if it works out economically to get away from the 1car = 1family model. The "self-driving" part of it all is big news to the geeks, but it's a tiny aspect of the overall changes engendered: Apparently mk and I are the only ones who read that article, which is a shame, because some of the fallout of automated truck fleets includes: - 75% reduction in freight charges - 150-200% decrease in transit times - radical improvements to public safety - Loss of at least 1% of all jobs in the United States I mean, that's some straight-up disruption and nobody even gives a fuck about the autonomous technology because these are giant trucks and that shit is mostly handled. It's just a matter of time. And nobody read that. It's hidden on tech crunch. Nobody here read it. NOBODY CARES. So be thrilled that at least Petroski took a swing at it, and recognize that it's going to take a steady drumbeat of people like Petroski (hint hint) to get people to care. So grab some sticks. ________________________________ As far as "ground traffic control system" I think it's gonna be like this: Google, as you pointed out, is mapping shit down to the inch. That's a massive first-starter advantage that nobody else will have the ability to catch up with. Everyone else is going to have to combine Google's slavish mapping tendencies with shortcuts that allow them to compete. It's going to be chaos - you're going to see elected officials, who will read things like the Petroski article with slack jaws, gobsmacked by the implications that they've never considered. These will be people who wouldn't understand LIDAR with Bill Nye standing next to them with a PowerPoint and they're going to have to pass judgement on what constitutes "autonomy-ready" vehicles and what doesn't. And, like every jurisdiction everywhere, they're going to kick the can upstairs, where eventually it'll end up in the hands of a large bureaucracy like NHTSA, who will have to come up with standards for autonomous vehicles. And as every manufacturer will have been trying different things, and as they won't be able to come up with mutual standards without assistance and subsidy, there will be a big industry initiative which will be called something evocative like "DRIVE2100" (evocative is easier to raise taxes for) and it'll have recommendations for what needs to be built into lights, signs, addresses, crosswalks, intersections, roundabouts, onramps, offramps, parking lots, the whole nine yards, and it will be seen as a giant works project by every industrialized nation, and the ones that are ahead of things are going to be the ones that are going to benefit the most because these are going to be cost-plus contracts and it's going to be bigger than the Americans with Disabilities Act and the guys who get to play in that game are going to be the guys who made a credible effort up to this point and the guys that are going to be dictated to are going to be the guys that didn't and if you ever wondered why Apple and Google are playing games with self-driving cars it's because we're on the cusp of the single biggest worldwide infrastructure expenditure in the history of civilization and it's gonna make The New Deal look like Cash for Clunkers. And it starts with articles like this. ("This year alone more people will be killed in traffic accidents involving trucks than in all domestic airline crashes in the last 45 years combined. At the same time, more truck drivers were killed on the job, 835, than workers in any other occupation in the U.S.")
It's gonna take a while, I'm afraid. While one of the insights I gained last year from doing my thesis was exactly what you mention (AV's creating all in-between forms of transport), that still likely manifests itself after we know what's the best way to make vehicles drive themselves. There is a path dependency there that might have major implications further down the road. The first big success is likely going to dominate the field because it is so difficult to get up to that level of safety standards. Not saying that it isn't also a very interesting and Big Question - just that I think the machine intelligence sets the precedent. I DO! I just totally missed that article. My second choice of thesis topics is to investigate the benefits of quay-to-customer or quay-to-warehouse full automation for the harbor of Rotterdam, which already has a fully automated port.Get used to that - it's going to happen more and more often.
NOBODY CARES.
Well... I dunno. There's going to be patchwork acceptance, and there's going to be conflict, and then there's going to be a working group and standards and public input periods and we'll still end up with an "open" standard like docx except it'll cost $8k to implement per vehicle. I think our fundamental disagreement is that I don't think there is a "best" way for AVs to drive themselves. I think there are probably several approaches that can be made to work, depending on environment, and I think that the bigger you are now, the more likely you are to be able to force your approach. Even then, it's a gamble. Sony lost Betamax but won CD and BluRay. And this battle is going to dwarf those. There is a path dependency there that might have major implications further down the road. The first big success is likely going to dominate the field because it is so difficult to get up to that level of safety standards. Not saying that it isn't also a very interesting and Big Question - just that I think the machine intelligence sets the precedent.
Yeah, your criticisms are dead on, but you'll probably be authoring the next generation of these articles soon, so just set the bar higher :) Also: I'm pretty sure they meant that the autonomous vehicle would pull up behind the truck, have to assume that it is stopped because it is in a line at a traffic light, and wait until the truck ahead moves. In that context, I think it's a good example.If in a particular city it is customary for trucks to double-park while making deliveries, will the driverless vehicle coming up behind a stopped truck think (in software terms) that it is at a stop light and wait there for the unseen light to change?
In my fucking dreams. Some guy today stopped just before the sidewalk in one of those lanes where the right turner merges to take out his phone. That's not logical ! The other day somebody stopped before crossing, stared at their phone and then started walking again without looking up. That wasn't even at an intersection. The car would model the direction that pedestrians were turning their head, since people who intend to cross the street (including jaywalkers) turn their head to look for oncoming cars.
True, it doesn't prevent the car from hitting all pedestrians. It does (to a great degree, when combined with movement predictions) mean that when the pedestrian is not at fault, the car will stop. If you run on the street without looking it is totally your fault - and now Daimler has high quality cameras and a few cores blazing to prove it. This is the Daimler researcher I meant. Page has some really cool images, and also this:It has been gratifying to see our long-term pedestrian detection research be incorporated in the 2013 Mercedes-Benz E- and S-Class. This is especially the case since evaluations of the German GIDAS accident data carried out by Mercedes-Benz indicate that this new technology could avoid 6 percent of pedestrian accidents and reduce the severity of a further 41 percent. This translates to less injuries and more lives saved.