- With potential shortages of goods, and restrictions on people’s movement, both parties are heading into unknown territory. It is likely Democrats will use this opportunity to further their case for Medicare for All...Republicans are likely to take a more xenophobic approach, emphasizing restrictions on foreigners and infected Americans. When it comes to managing shortages, however, both parties are split, just as they were in 1932, between their Wall Street factions that assume affluence and the less mature populist factions that seek assertive public power. The Democratic Party primaries certainly echo those of the Great Depression, with candidates from Bernie Sanders to Amy Klobuchar trying to wrap themselves in FDR’s mantle.
...
We came to these realizations once before in 1932, and created a vibrant democratic state over the following few decades—one that rapidly expanded our life spans, defeated the Nazis, and helped create Silicon Valley. The convergence of the Covid-19 outbreak and the presidential election will force us to do it once again. We've lived in the world of unreality for far too long.
A'ight Hubski, what's your take? Is this article too optimistic? Too hyperbolic?
I was all set to post it yesterday morning and then by yesterday evening I didn't. I follow Matt Stoller on Twitter and I generally like to hear what he has to say - but I think "COVID-19 COULD mark the end of affluence politics" is a safer bet. I just don't think we know how bad this could get. I mean, I have the flu right now (probably). It's maybe the 2nd or 3rd time I've had the flu this season - it's the worst, for sure. But I also drove up the PCH rather than fly to my wedding in 2009 because we were expecting borders to close and airline travel to stop because of swine flu. And Mexico dealt with it, and Mexicans in America probably dealt with it, but it was a nasty flu season anyway so we'll never truly know how much of that was flu flu and how much was swine flu. It didn't change politics in any event. I say all this only because you asked for "my take." Otherwise I woulda circledotted and moved on.
Nah, I'm glad you said it! This is exactly the type of thought I wanted to hear. I didn't put the title in quotes for nothing. I don't really have much to add, but I agree that it could mark the end of affluence politics even if I'm not certain that it will. Either way I think the potential sociological impacts are interesting to consider, whether they go realized or not. As far as I'm concerned, this article is another purl in the speculation the country has been knitting into a narrative. Time will tell. I am a bit worried about how well we'll handle COVID-19 with the cost of testing w/o insurance, and people's reluctance to take two weeks off of work. Again, time will tell!
Testing only matters if you're trying to track it. The era of tracking is probably a week from closing I'd wager. Your model is 2009 Swine Flu wherein something like a billion people had it, it was enough like any other flu that nobody cared, and people just got sick. I am a bit worried about how well we'll handle COVID-19 with the cost of testing w/o insurance, and people's reluctance to take two weeks off of work.
Dude but flu shots are wonderful. First time it was like "I'm achy and I have excess snot." Second time was "I'm kind of achy and I wonder if it's just sympathy for my kid who is coughing." Third time is "you know? I'm going to sleep all day and not leave the couch." If you told me I had coronavirus RIGHT NOW I would not be surprised. We were on a plane Sunday, we were on a plane the Sunday before that, we spent a week putting on other peoples' rental ski gear and the entire resort was clammed up in the building because we got four feet of snow in two days. Presume symptoms typically run towards mild and I could easily have coronavirus.
Yeah I started getting flu shots once I had the flu the first time. I remember Monday feeling a bit shit, Tuesday like I had been punched in the face by peak Mike Tyson, and Wednesday I wasn't moving out of my bed. Hopefully the ol' corona steers clear of our islands but I doubt we'll remain free of it for long. Plus I work in and around a Hospital! Joy.
Disclaimer: Hardly the most knowledgeable on these matters around here, so take speculation with a heavy dose of NaCl. Manufacturing of transportation exports in China has been stopped. Entertainment industry is being affected as well - both in China and Italy. Swine Flu probably got closest to this, but Ebola and Zika never got close. From the article: The article has a nice theory on where the needle of politics will tip. The writer calls Bernie and Trump heralds of politics of affluence’s end, and coronavirus as a catalyst for DOOM! Sorry, er, change. Yes, we’ll feel the effects of manufacturing halting. Yes, it will crop up further in debates. This IS a pandemic - much like the depression was felt worldwide. [EDIT: we’re not quite at Defcon-5 yet.] But if manufacturing fizzles out with mortality rates staying low, then this will be a recoverable bout. Watching which manufacturers start back up and how they stay back up will be a good indicator. Affluence politics is not the politics of being wealthy, though, but rather the politics of not paying attention to what creates wealth in the first place. That is to say, it’s the politics of ignoring our ability to make and distribute the things people need. With the banking collapse in 2008, the election of Trump in 2016 and his mourning of empty factories, and now with Bernie Sanders dominating the early primaries, that era may at last be passing. A pandemic disease outbreak would only hasten this progression and force us back into the politics of production.
Stoller's schtick is monopoly. That's his focus, that's his expertise, that's his book. From his perspective, supply chain issues are going to cause a great awakening over the fact that Amazon is 80% low-grade Chinese crap. I don't know that I agree. From a machiavellian perspective, a lengthy adventure with Coronavirus has the potential to suppress voter turnout amongst the olds and those who can't vote absentee - in other words, Republicans. This was basically the model pursued by the Rajneeshis.
COVID-19 is a flu. Like the common seasonal flu, it may wax and wane with the seasons. However, it is also prominent in the southern hemisphere, where it is not flu season. So the speculation on the seasonality may be wrong. Or maybe it has mutated. Which is the scary bit. Flu ain't so bad, because it comes and goes and doesn't really have a chance to iterate and mutate in really ugly ways. COVID-19 may break that pattern... which would make it year-round... which would give it far more ability to mutate, and for those mutations to spread. THAT's the future of COVID-19 that worries me.
I believe we're at two cases in Africa, four cases in Australia, one case in Brazil and 82,547 cases in the northern hemisphere.However, it is also prominent in the southern hemisphere, where it is not flu season.
I found this interesting, and have been watching coworkers flip out about it https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
After a day to think about it, I don't think coronavirus is going to change anything. I do like the article for the sake of its argumentation, i.e. the idea that a massively disrupting event like what the author imagines coronavirus to be could change things. Idk, I found it more interesting than compelling, hence the ask in my post :)