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comment by mk
mk  ·  4489 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Predictions

So do you predict a Romney win? I know you prefer it, but do you think he has it? Basically, it means him winning Ohio.





cliffelam  ·  4488 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I don't make predictions, but I observe the campaigns. I think one camp is seeing very good poll numbers and the other isn't.

-XC

mk  ·  4488 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Pundit talk. :)

cliffelam  ·  4488 days ago  ·  link  ·  

No, what I mean is that the polls we see in the news are generally spun numbers or designed to drive media cycles.

But I can observe that Obama has dropped out of NC and that the Romney/Obama signage ratio is pretty close to 1:1 when last time it was 10:1 for Teh w0n. I can draw a conclusion from that.

I also see that Obama is having to campaign and spend heavily in states that were for him last time, which means some of them are lost and many are very close. For example, I think NH went +10 for O last time and it's at least tied up right now.

That is not good for the Donks.

-XC

mk  ·  4488 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I don't think Obama has a chance in NC. However, Romney almost certainly needs Ohio. I agree that this will be much closer than 2008, but close doesn't mean a Romney win. Romney needs to flip Ohio (assuming he gets Florida, which I think he will).

I really see this coming down to "Who gets Ohio?". Of course NH, Nevada, Iowa, etc. can make up for an Ohio loss, but I can't imagine a candidate winning Ohio and yet losing most of those.

It will be close, and I am glad I don't live in Ohio.