I think that we're going to find out very soon how likely compromise is. It's pretty clear to me from his victory speech that Obama is returning with a renewed spirit of compromise, -the question is if the Tea-Party backed new (well, two years old now) Republican House is ready to play ball. I think that the Republican leadership has to choose their strategy now, and figure out if they want to become pragmatic again, or if they are going to double down on fighting the President on almost every single bit of legislation without compromise. I think Original Romney could have easily have beaten Obama if he didn't have go through the Kafkan Metamorphosis of the Republican primary. He could have sold himself as a pragmatic moderate Conservative that could run a government like an efficient business. I really don't think Obama would have stood a chance. But then again, only Kafka Romney stood a chance of even getting to the main stage. What is interesting is that whether they like it or not, the Republicans are being forced to sort this out almost immediately. The Fiscal Cliff is approaching fast, and both sides are going to have their narratives laid bare by these negotiations and the manner in which they go about them. I think the Obama's narrative is pretty apparent. They want a compromise mix of cuts to spending and increase in revenue. That hasn't changed. They are going to ask for tax hikes on the wealthy (along the same lines as have been expressed for years now) and will give cuts in social program and military spending, with social making up the majority of spending cuts given (despite the howls from the left). Military spending will be the minority of cuts, but even the cuts that will happen will be shocking, and only made politically possible by the fact that Obama is not up for reelection. Republican who want it can take cuts in wasteful military spending and blame it all on a Dem. I feel like the Republicans will be forced to finally give on increased revenues, and they will throw in the towel on the upper earners in accordance with the American people's wishes (according to polls). It just remains to be seen to what degree they bring compromise to the table, or if they bring us to the absolute brink of the financial cliff in order to try and avoid compromising even a single bit on revenues. This, and the rhetoric that surrounds their ultimate strategy (whatever they decide) will say a lot about how they'll govern going forward. I'm really hoping that some actual compromise gets done, and I'm actually glad the fiscal cliff is coming, as it's going to force both parties to get their narratives together really fucking fast on an insanely important issue. We'll know where everybody stands pretty soon. Here's to hoping the showdown won't be as epic as it was the last time around.
Let's not forget why we're here in the first place: they already held the President hostage to the detriment of the United States in the debt ceiling debate. It was amusing to watch Paul Ryan go on about how under Obama we've seen the nation's credit rating fall and now we face deep military cuts, when he was one of the architects of both of those events. Let's remember that the reason the credit rating of the US fell had nothing to do with our debt or deficits. It had only to do with the prospect that the Congress would stand in the way of the US meeting its debt obligations. Boehner is already compromising with Ried, but it will be for naught. He was on record as saying that there was no chance that he would let the Tea Party hold up raising the debt ceiling, and we saw that has no control over them. Cantor will again use this as an occasion to raise his profile in the party, and the proof is in the recent history that he cares a lot more about himself than about good governance. I suspect another kick-the-can type deal to be struck in teh last week of December and nothing more. They will keep doing this until they have a Republican in the White House again, and you, I, John Boehner or the President has no way to stop them....or if they bring us to the absolute brink of the financial cliff in order to try and avoid compromising even a single bit on revenues.
That is precisely what I was referring to earlier in the post. The Republican House is not in lock step though. It's pretty obvious that Boehner is a staunch conservative that is nevertheless capable and willing to compromise, -he's just being held at gunpoint by the Tea Party faction of his house. If the remaining moderate voices in the house decide to get join with Dems on issues they personally advocate, Boehner will happily lead them and leave the Tea Party behind. It remains to be seen if this happens though. There's a struggle going on right now and we'll see sooner rather than later who wins that battle.Let's not forget why we're here in the first place: they already held the President hostage to the detriment of the United States in the debt ceiling debate.
I'm not as optimistic. I have a bad feeling that they are going to push very hard to keep the Bush tax cuts for $250k and up, maybe even threatening to go over the fiscal cliff. If they do, I hope Obama doesn't blink.I feel like the Republicans will be forced to finally give on increased revenues, and they will throw in the towel on the upper earners in accordance with the American people's wishes (according to polls).
There is no doubt they will push for this. This is their starting place in negotiations. The only question is will the portion of the Republican party that views it as their end place as well win the battle leading up to the debt negotiations. We're either going to see another epic showdown, or a much less dramatic compromise. Either way, the end result will be expiration of tax cuts for upper earners, -it's just a question of how close to the cliff will the push it. If they push it to the cliff, we're going to get 4 more years of the same behavior we are used to, and voter approval of the House will plummet (almost impossibly) even lower, -not that anybody there cares one whit. Also, Obama will not blink on this one. I'm calling that right now and I'll take any odds.