Turkey is going to fall https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/1/7/just-how-bad-is-inflation-in-turkey-it-depends-on-who-you-ask Or, it's going to get all protesty and shooty-in-the-streetsy and Putin will step in there, too. And then the 3.4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, as well as a whole bunch of Kurds who are going to get the shit bombed out of them, are going to spill all over Europe. Which isn't going to have any gas because Russia. Cheers!
I'm curious what will happen with U.S. nukes in Turkey regardless of weather Russia intervenes. The hawk position has long been that there is no way to withdraw missiles without pushing Turkey into Russia's arms but leaving them there has looked like a hostage situation for the last few years..
On the plus side, the Venn diagram of "Russia" and "nukes" has been overweighted in American foreign policy scholarship at least three decades after it was relevant. On the minus side, it hasn't had any fresh training data since Able Archer. The nukes in Turkey are "special stores". They could be in Italy in two hours or Britain by nightfall. Incirlik doesn't have any attached American aircraft, just American nukes. If they were missiles that'd be exciting.