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comment by b_b
b_b  ·  171 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Dear Joe, it’s time to go

He doesn't have dementia. He has age related cognitive decline, which isn't great either. I think he's going to last in the race until the first set of high quality, post-debate opinion polls come out. I think this actually might be a best case scenario for America. The behind-the-scenes fight right now should be Witmer v. Josh Shapiro, with no other serious contenders. Both upper midwest pragmatist governors who are very popular in relatively evenly dem-gop split states. Either would be formidable, assuming it's not too late to mount a serious campaign. I think Trump is more like America's Maduro--stupid and incompetent but with an authoritarian's disposition. But I don't like gambling America's future on a guy who probably isn't fit to be president now, let alone 4 years from now, when the vanquishment of America's Maduro is there for the taking with the right candidate.





cgod  ·  171 days ago  ·  link  ·  

They only way he isn't the Dems candidate is if he dies.

b_b  ·  171 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I agreed with you 100% until the day after the debate. The editorial boards of every major newspaper in the country, liberal and conservative, are urging him to step aside. That’s not nothing. I gone it even odds at this point.

am_Unition  ·  171 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Newsom wants it too, I think, and any discussion that cuts out Kamala, well, I can think of at least one person who's gonna take issue with that. And potentially many other Black Americans.

It is too late to mount a serious campaign, though. Swapping out Joe for another candidate undermines the legitimacy of future primaries, and it's already been reported that the Heritage Foundation (project 2025 authors) is looking into using a late election cycle candidate swap to bolster any potential election suits should Trump lose. And I've yet to see a convincing poll-tested analysis that shows another candidate being able to take on Trump. Yes, the "generic dem" polls better, but as soon as you slap a name on it, the favorability drops by something like 20%, is my current understanding.

edit: here is polling from yesterday

It isn't some sort of pro-Biden hysteria driving my concerns here, I want to assure everyone. I'm not terribly fond of him. The only thing that matters is beating Donald Trump, and I think Biden's still the best shot we have. It's unfortunate.

For posterity: 1930s Germany also didn't take Hitler at his word, either, btw. They thought it was rhetorical bombast, that he was an un-serious, comical figure.

mk  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I won’t for Biden or Trump. I’d very likely vote for a different democrat. I assume there are lots of independents like me.

am_Unition  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Let's do a vote swap, I vote independent in my state and you vote dem in yours, cool?

mk  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

But I don’t want Biden to be president. If I did, I would just vote for him. I feel like I’m setting a very low bar but I don’t think he’ll survive 4 years, and he’s in serious cognitive decline. I don’t think he’s currently fit for office. He has the nuclear codes. The Ukraine situation is going to probably come to a head in the next few years. He can’t even admit his own decline, and his admin is unable to act rationally. Both candidates are extremely unfit. I’m not voting for either. I don’t want to be beholden to one brand of insanity over another. This has gone too far. No thanks. I’ll be quietly prepping. Happy to consider a replacement though!

am_Unition  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Buden's cognizance is indeed a serious concern, but dawg. Dawg. There is a solid order of magnitude in the disparity of my Biden vs. Trump assessment. I'm worried we will be wishing for presidential dementia in under a year. I gotta get outta here, this place is like ground zero for detainment centers. Only San Diego might rival south Texas.

mk  ·  169 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The DNC will be to blame. Maybe me a bit, but mostly the DNC. Particularly because Trump is going to win by a wide margin.

If you don’t want Trump, your issue isn’t really with me.

Maybe that’s tautological.

Devac  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Since it's likely Biden won't last four years, due to death or decline, wouldn't banking on strong vice president taking over be a good strategy? That's still a thing and US didn't instate tanistry or some shit?

am_Unition  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes that's absolutely correct. Our 25th amendment also allows for removal if a large number of persons very near to an active POTUS make the call. Welll, for now.

Devac  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So is this a winning move? Vote Biden, elect the prick, hope the VP can score at least a 10 on Glasgow Coma Scale? 'Cause this sounds better than the alternative and less wasteful than independent in your climate. I'm sure mk will 'rebuke' this with some meaningless faux-profound tautology, at least he does that whenever talking to me, but you can use this as... amunition (ba dum tsh!).

am_Unition  ·  169 days ago  ·  link  ·  

  shots fired

That's my plan, limping this Old Dog Named Joe across the finish line. Like dragging him by the collar (Kristi Noem is taking interest). Harris would do a fine job. Like not really, there's still the uh capitalism thing, but the only way towards serious progress is through a dem victory. Living to vote another day. Sucks, of course. Before Palestine, Joe was the most unmistakably progressive president since FDR. And now it sucks to vote for him. A little. Quite a bit, really. Oh and my vote doesn't matter because of where I live. Trying to sneak out of here before the electric grid collapses, an especially noteworthy imminent collapse among a very promising field of other imminent collapses.

I feel bad because I know how good Poland might look if, say, a POTUS gave you half of Ukraine and constantly makes it clear that he doesn't give a shit about America, much less Europe.

But yeah man, we're cooked. We are kooky cooked cookadiddle-do, the ash is turning gray. It's ok, I'm making really good art

Devac  ·  169 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Nah, throwing your vote into the pile matters wherever you are. We recently had a Sołtys (like county-level official for rural areas) election where the difference between candidates was 6 votes (out of 250-someting voters). Sure, it's not the same league, our Sołtys is 47 and kicks ass as a public servant, but may POTUS match her importance and prestige one day. Your vote is no less important than mouthbreather's next in line.

    I know how good Poland might look if, say, a POTUS gave you half of Ukraine

LOL, come on, that's basic even by my understanding of geopolitics. Ukraine is neither his/America's to give nor ours to take. Also, combining it with Poland would cause a civil war faster than most of you can spell 'Volhynia'.

am_Unition  ·  168 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Dude you need to tell your friends that an American tried to singularize a singular word (soltys).

Devac  ·  168 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Nah, I told you already: we're pretty understanding of this. Hell, we have plurals of collective nouns, like 'the police' (nominative singular: policja, plural: policje), so go and wrap your head around that. It's like Latin, but much weirder and less regular. You're fine.

And good one, but what would we do with whole three lie-bear-ians?

am_Unition  ·  168 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The well-boy is key to lie-bear-yun stability. We're all about the 1/3 nuclear family and superbreeders.

Devac  ·  167 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If you shuffled the words and were about 1/3 families and nuclear superbreeders, it'd be sustainable even without lye-baer-oons.

am_Unition  ·  169 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Send the Solty over, if you can, thanks.

I have once again ruined communication with a proverbial "you". I am talking about Trump giving Putin Ukraine. Even some of it. Putin lives and breathes mid-20th century Soviet expansionist propaganda. If he thinks the US is noncommittal enough with NATO, I think you have Moldova as a warning case, and then maybe latvia and estonia but god knows belarus is a done deal.

b_b  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That poll actually shows the opposite of what the poster purports it to show. Trump’s highest average is against Biden, and though each of the other candidates is weaker in nominal terms than Biden, the “don’t know” is significantly wider. As the election approaches, those don’t knows will break dem if they’re given a decent candidate, trump’s approval ratings such as they are.

am_Unition  ·  170 days ago  ·  link  ·  

OTOH, Trump has not yet affixed the right-wing media upon a different target. It's all terribly unknowable.

But I will tell you what I do know. We don't deserve this. Nobody deserves this.

And I know that if Trump wins, I will need to seek a judge to rule on whether we can play guitars in The Camps or not.