Facebook -> Myspace Apple -> Sony Google -> Ford Amazon -> ??? (I can't think of a very relevant comparison)
I agree with the Facebook and Apple analogies. Any brand that relies on being 'cool' is always at risk from the next big thing. However, I think Google and Ford are at opposite ends of the business spectrum. Ford's success was based on standardised products to keep costs low and generate volume sales. Their Japanese competitors innovated, diversified, offered choice and developed a more efficient manufacturing process. Ford stuck with a standard product in a single market and suffered as a result. Google, on the other hand, is always attempting to innovate, enter and even create new markets. I think the question for Google is whether their pace of innovation is sustainable.
Ya that is a good point. To be honest, I don't think it is inevitable that all of those companies will fall. But I think it is inevitable that their hegemony will be challenged. Of course, it is already obvious that Facebook's hegemony is being challeneged. And even Samsung is destabilizing Apple's hegemony in the smart phone market. Google and Amazon seem safe at the moment. But change happens so quickly that I wonder if I'll be able to say that in 2015 or 2020.
It's insane how much change we've seen in the past 13 years. I often wonder if it will slow down soon or whether we will maintain this crazy amount of progress and change. I think google is getting close to being capable of dying, but still not at that stage. I too wonder what 2015-2030 will look like.
Amazon relies on insane volume to make up for insanely low margin. They are just one administration away from investigation for anti-competitive pricing where they sell at break even or loss to undercut brick and mortar. Not saying it will happen, but there could be a regulatory pushback someday in the future depending on how their online model warps economies and how much of it they dominate. I think their biggest threat is from a paranoid regulatory response some time in the future. But they also have their hands in cloud services and other technologies, so it's actually more complicated than that. Amazon has demonstrated an amazing capacity for transformation when you look at what they started out as. Pretty impressive.Amazon -> ??? (I can't think of a very relevant comparison)