August 6, 1992 -The Washington Posts then managing editor Robert Kaiser
- I was taken aback by predictions at the conference about the next
stage of the computer revolution. It was offered as an
indisputable fact that the rate of technological advancement is
actually increasing. Dave Nagel, the impressive head of Apple’s
Advanced Technology Group, predicted “the three billions” would be
a reality by the end of this decade: relatively cheap personal
computers with a billion bits of memory (60 million is common
today), with microprocessors that can process a billion
instructions per second (vs. about 50 million today) that can
transmit data to other computers at a billion bits per second (vs.
15-20 million today). At that point the PC will be a virtual
supercomputer, and the easy transmission and storage of large
quantities of text, moving and still pictures, graphics, etc., will
be a reality. Eight years from now.
sourced from this NPR Piece
When I came across this post, I shared it with a former college professor who was involved in building the Washington Post's online presence. It dawned on me the memo was the root behind what she worked on. Her response: "Oh yeah, we all got a copy of that memo back then." I thought that was a cool anecdote worth sharing. :)
That's definitely a cool anecdote. I wonder how many people and organizations had similar warnings foretold about the tremendous impact the internet was going to have on their various industries and did nothing to change in the face of it? Journalism was not alone in this huge sea-change. Think about all the markets that Amazon has disrupted. Been to a Borders Book Store lately? How about a Blockbuster Video? The cool thing is the small independent book stores are on the rise. Independent record shops are having great years. It's sort of a giant payback for the behemoths that once ruled. BestBuy is a great example, they're having tough times after spending years putting mom and pop appliance stores out of business. Now who is coming back? The mom and pops that can out-service online retailers and be more nimble in the market than a BestBuy. I think I'm going off on an unrelated tangent at this point though... :) Thanks for sharing that nugget from your former professor.
This was the warning signal for newspapers. So few listened in a timely manner. Mark Potts, who kindly posted this memo, wrote in another post the timeline of newspaper think. I remember friends who worked at newspapers in the online department in the mid-2000s stating the higher ups refused to acknowledge the medium.
Thanks for the link. I think this summed it up pretty well: 1998: Oh wow--we may have missed the boat on the Internet. 2000: Ha! We were right! Just a fad! Phew! All is well! 2005: Are newspapers a great business, or what?? 2008: Oh shit 2012: Help! We'll do whatever you tell us to do! Just make it stop!! I first started using the Internet in 1995 and honestly, I could see how someone would have thought it was "just a fad" if they were too old to realize how exciting it was. It would be like a manufacturer of board games playing atari and thinking the same thing. -Short sighted.1995: This Internet thing? Just a fad. The CB radio of the '90s.