Your strategy to invest in the market is a good one. You might enjoy this podcast, these guys run a bunch of different scenarios and came out that its mostly a wash in outcomes as long as you stay disciplined in you investment. Really great podcast, on other topics as well. Would recommend a listen, it might cheer you up that your approach is equally valid.

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/325

The countertop sized steam, convection oven combo that’s built in would be my dream appliance. Barring that a dedicated shelf for one and the actual oven can sit idle for that one time a year you need to cook 3 different things in the oven.

Im actually a Miele fan the dishwasher was fantastic up until it tried to flood out house that happens… What sucks is that they don’t sell parts directly so getting parts is a pain in the ass. Also because of low volume their techs are less available and more expensive.

You are going to be so pissed when it breaks and you have to wait weeks to get the Miele tech to come in, tell you that the part you know is broken is actually broken and then come back in 2 weeks with the actual part. All because the assholes won’t selll you parts directly,.

I wanted their dishwasher but I couldn’t handle not being able to order replacement parts and just do the work myself. Getting someone to do any service related task in Seattle is such a pain in the ass and wallet.

0? Vaccines don’t cause autism…

I actually agree with her. They were unwilling to actually touch the liberal issues or conservative issues. They stick to the official government talking point and that’s it. Sanitized and just perpetuate the lie of the day.

But people are turning it off. I used to listen every day I quit them they even lost my wife who is a hardcore liberal. I hate it so much I would donate to kill it now. They produce the type of content that we used to laugh at Russia, Iran or North Korea for.

So you are telling me we need to listen to you on Sunday? You are a crazy polymath in every way man.

A trump vote was never about things being better. It’s a fuck your vote plain and simple. It’s about kicking down middle class liberals to be poor and live similarly shitty lives to middle America. It’s not about bringing anyone up it’s about bringing everyone down to shitty parity.

Most don’t, 2 days or multiple offers and 100-200 over asking. The ones that sat for that long had something seriously wrong with them and were selling at a bad time of the year. Buyers get spooked if a listing goes pending and falls through or a bad remodel took out a load being wall or 2 and the yard is encroaching into the basement. 2 years ago I saw some go for 400-500 over asking so I guess it could be worse…

The volume is so low that we’re not out of bounds of I want it and bad financial decisions be dammed I have 2-4 years left to produce babies. A lot of tech bros in our area can come up with 200-300 down and a mortgage and as long as both people work they can hold down the 7-10k house payment too. The volumes were taking about are like 20 houses a week so 1000 annually in greater Seattle. Add that to people being dead set for one hood and you would be lucky to average a house a week. Shortages create manias and manias aren’t rational.

That house won’t rent for 7500, which is funny because that’s how much you would bed to break even (ish) on a 1.1-1.2 mil house. Red fin says estimated rent is 5500 and even that is high. Houses are an emotional purchase right now, the right move is probably to sell and rent unless inflation goes totally nuts then you’d get screwed

Must be location specific everything in LFP is selling. Even if it’s a terrible money pit and they mostly are because contractor rates for Reno are outrageous. 50k for a small bathroom is considered normal. 12k for a deck is low.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Lake-Forest-Park/15855-37th-Ave-NE-98155/home/90284 Needed structural remodel and normal remodel. With the cost of labor is 300k of work for maybe a 1.2m house not including holding costs while they do the work which are around 90k a year. They wanted 1.1 down to 960 but you can’t unfuck it for that cost.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Lake-Forest-Park/3810-NE-178th-St-98155/home/92629 Pending with 15% escalation. For basic 2br 1 bath with a basement on a large lot.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Lake-Forest-Park/16051-36th-Ave-NE-98155/home/90064 Sold in 2 days 100k over needs a a remodel.

Yet less than a month ago this guy went for 50 under because the initial sale failed. https://www.redfin.com/WA/Lake-Forest-Park/17031-35th-Ave-NE-98155/home/88409 Decent house but steep slope.

It’s crazy out there man. Meanwhile this guy rents for an affordable 6k a month. https://www.redfin.com/WA/Mercer-Island/4456-Ferncroft-Rd-98040/home/257056 which is less than the mortgage with 20% down for any of the above projects.

That was a month ago. The 1-1.5 band went from reverse to 60 in February. Nothing was moving from nov/jan or going at/under ask. Now it’s back to 10-15% over its nuts. All for a 50-100 bps dip in rates that going to retrace in the next week or so if the fed make waves about future cuts.

25-50% of book value seems to be what a lot of CRE is worth but it’s really hard to get folks to admit that. Prices can change drastically with rates and a lot of current owners are praying for lower rates. At least till the election seems like risk of hikes is low but decent chance of a cut has fueled the hopium.

Retail house prices are driving by the nesting drive so they are less in touch with reality but they will be more likely to clear with a forcing function like job cuts as there won’t be extend and pretend on the consumer side.

As for blinking my guess is nobody yet. Even though the balloon loan expires the banks have been playing the extend and pretend game on distressed assets. They will modify the loan one year at a time at previous rates to prevent having to take losses. The clearing event will occur then a bunch of regional banks get liquidated for other reasons and someone acquires their assets for 20-30 cents per dollar. Then they will sell them to you for 50 and make stupid profits. It’s a slow process and it hasn’t started yet so I don’t see how we get there in less than 2 years.

I’m In the same boat with my actual house. We looked at a house it listed for 1.1m sold for 1.25. It’s ok… For the monthly payment on that bitch I can rent a mansion on the fucking lake in Mercer island. Of course wife wants to own build equity or whatever but how much equity are you really building at 7% interest in a declining market that hasn’t accepted higher for longer is a reality with 4%+ inflation. Seems like a loser bet but it’s probably worth a couple 100k to keep her happy.

Well let’s start with where you think the entry point for you looks like. I’m thinking if you get this right you might be in for generational wealth. It does feel early though forced liquidations are not happening yet so no panic selling.

Good luck I hope they don’t crush your soul with their bureaucracy and science denial . I have so very little respect for the cdc now that I would support shutting it down and either starting again it just giving up altogether.

I don’t use the the extra bowl and strainer, it does improve cohesion on old eggs but like you said not worth it. Don’t need it at all for home eggs. Cracking into a small sauce dish and gently sliding it in helps though with minimal extra effort. The Method is nearly identical to the one you linked just with that extra step. I like starting with kenji recipes and then eliminating all the stuff that’s just a bit too much work. Just how I operate

Home grown eggs are great taste better too but managing bird worms and diseases that really sucks.

I will attempt that as soon as the damn chickens start laying again. Warming up store eggs is more effort then I can give eggs as they are always a last minute meal for me. Had really good luck with Kenjis poached egg method if that’s your thing.

Absolutely you need to know who you are dealing with. No different than books or any other material. That’s why I don’t like picking up video recipes off randos. As much as you hate Alton at least you know what to expect and adjust accordingly. Besides it’s very rare that I have all of the incidents needed in a recipe available at any given time. Cooking an exact recipe is 2x the work as cooking an inspired by recipe. Often the author achieves similar outcomes using a technique you aren’t familiar with or don’t prefer and you need to know to skip that and do it your preferred way. People who don’t know how to cook don’t know what to omit or shortcut and so cooking becomes that much harder for them.

I cook probably 6-8 meals a week and still sometimes things burn due to sugar content or stick due to moisture/heat issues. New recipes are always complicated even if you generally know what you are doing. Even stuff that should be stupid easy like fucking “easy Mac” that powder clumps unless you find the perfect addition technique and even then it still might clump.

I understand what you are getting at so many recipes online are just terrible in both technique and ingredient choice. I often have found that video reviews are a lot better in that regard because they are higher effort to produce and the creator often covers aspects that don’t show up in recipes. That being said video is a really annoying format to cook to and almost always results in me having a greasy dirty phone due to all the rewinds

Many people can’t cook. The technique to mix prep and heat are actually quite complex. Zero chance you will make a passable pie crust off just an ingredient list for example. Temperature control on a skillet is quite complex based on heat thermal mass and moisture content. It requires a lot of practice, reading watching and practice again to get things to taste good.

Windows will fight you hard to prevent that. Clippy is back and he’s been enhanced with AI

The thing is Trump has a good chance of winning right now. Sure lots of things could change but the guy should have no chance in hell but here we are. If the the goal is to squeak by with a 1-2% margin like it’s a union vote then the democrats got this down, if the goal is some sort of ruling majority capable of governing, well that shit ain’t looking good. 4 more years of disfunction under Trump or Biden is a pretty terrible outcome in my book. Even if Biden wins we still loose just a little less it’s not much you cheer for even if I have to eventually hold my nose and vote for the guy.

2 senile dudes yelling at each other for 2 hours. I’ll wait for the highlights reel

I have always argued that Biden is the wrong choice for this and at the very least he’s gotta get a new vp. Nothing is going to change isn’t a great strategy when most people aren’t supper happy with their current situation.

What a mess Biden wins by default because the republicans end up with Haley. Idk if that’s more or less of a crisis for democracy than a trump victory. All these scenarios suck

The NFT shoes are certificates redeemable for shoes aren't they? Like no need to own the actual watch just buy an option on with option for redemption of physical. A luxury good equivalent of a metals/commodity exchange. Thats probably the best use of blockchain. Trade in the NFTs have the exchange charge a fee but store the actual in a vault. Or better yet, never actually make the watch just build it on demand if its actually claimed.