I would like Zygar to be right. I don't think he is. I read his book - it's basically Plokhi's book but with more apologies and justifications for the Russians being rank bastards going back to the Vikings. His forward and afterward are both pretty much pleas to his friends in Kyiv to stop calling him a monster. And the book, in general, is "Russia didn't solely fuck up Ukraine, there were ex-Soviet Ukrainians who were just as wretched." An interesting point emphasized by both Zygar and Plokhy is that the power structures of the USSR were rife with opportunistic Ukrainians who both recognized that there was no future in Ukrainian politics and also that the Russians, in general, suck at castle intrigue. The main difference I see between Ukrainian writers on Russia and Russian writers on Russia is the Russians tend to be "we don't have to be dicks" while the Ukrainians are at "but you always are."
Speaking of Putin puppets, I kind of doubt Gonzolo Lira was tortured to death by Ukraine, as the whatabout deflection from Navalny goes. I also wonder whether or not the Navalny timing was meant to combo boost Tucker's groveling. What do you think the global order looks like if the two nuclear superpowers align under a common fascist banner? It's probably time to start asking that question. I dunno what Trump would do, besides maybe bomb Mexico, but Putin will probably go for Poland and the Baltics. The EU might not really like that. China probably gets Taiwan, but in exchange for what? Trade deals and something else, maybe. Bibi seems like he'd be cool with other faschy strongmen. Modhi too, and probably his replacement. What would happen with Iran and the Saudis, would Trump and Putin force a (garbage) peace deal? Is there some scenario where the entire globe is either helpless, complacent, or complicit in a far-right alliance, except maybe 20-something EU states, South Korea, Australia, Britain, Brazil, Canada, something like that? Haven't really seen anyone game this out yet, and I'm probably way off from what you might envision.
Kamil Galeev argues that Navalny died because the Tucker interview was such a bomb; Tucker was super-invested in getting Putin to say MAGA talking points and Putin was super-invested in Russian imperialist talking points and the result was neither audience got what they wanted. I guess he beat a rerun of a mind-reading competition? I think this fundamentally misunderstands the facts on the ground: 1) There is one nuclear superpower and eight nuclear-armed nations. Each one of those eight could get up some birds and kill millions. Three or four of them could get shit across an ocean. And the United States could glass them all within half an hour, any day or night, rain or shine. 2) We've SEEN what a Trump administration looks like - careerists leave, incompetents move in, the bureaucracy hems them in and they fizzle out to nothing. Yet you're out here going "I dunno what Trump would do, besides maybe bomb Mexico" and 'Putin will probably go for Poland and the Baltics." have you been watching the past couple years? Back in the heyday of the cold war the Western scenario went like this: 1) Russia gets provocative somewhere 2) America escalates 3) Russia crosses the Rhine 4) America fights back 5) Russia takes heavy losses 6) Russia pushes the button 7) We all die horribly The Soviet scenario went like this: 1) The US gets provocative somewhere 2) Russia responds 3) The US kicks Russia's ass, gets cocky, and lights up a nuclear first strike 4) We all die horribly but not before Russia gets in some vengeance strikes in via failsafed nuclear and biological weapons I bring this up because "Russia gets pasted" was a fundamental axiom undisputed by either side. And this was based on (1) America's losing of Vietnam (2) America's inability to protect the barracks in Lebanon (3) America's rather dismal performance in Grenada (4) America's lack of excellence in Libya (5) America's disappointing showing in Panama. Able Archer 83 and all that but the last 20 years of the Cold War were an exercise in furtiveness by both sides. Fast forward to Desert Storm and - Look. Desert Shield was wall-to-wall coverage of "the Elite Republican Guard." Chemical weapons everywhere. Battle-tested, frontline Soviet arsenals. Fourth largest army in the world. The government and press were softening us up for another Vietnam. Common consensus on the invasion of Iraq was we were gonna be Tet Offensiving our way through the mid '90s and we were there for it because yellow ribbons'n'shit. Girl in my chem class was beside herself because her national guard dad got called off to an FOB in Saudi Arabia and she didn't think she'd ever see him again. "How to avoid the draft" became a hot topic of discussion. Instead? We were in Baghdad in 48 hours. We actually had to slow down because our logistics couldn't keep up with our front line - like, Abrams tanks are faster across open desert than Power Wagons are across paved highways. And then we left because eww who wants to run a place like that? Black Hawk Down tells the tale of a bunch of special forces who got pinned down in Somalia and ended up getting routed. It also tells the tale of a dozen American elites who managed to kill between 300 and 700 Somalis while they were waiting for rescue. There are things that the American military sucks at - nation-building, garrison-holding, hearts'n'minds winning - but it absolutely does not suck at ass-kicking. And we have exported the shit out of that. See this guy? He sucks so hard that Cary Elwes starred in a movie about it. That li'l guy entered our arsenal in 1981. Yet here he is, absolutely bodying a late model front line Russian battle tank. I cannot properly express - I have tried and I fail - to communicate the astonishing level of fail displayed by the Russian armed forces. It is fucking bogglilng. That tank getting held at bay by a 40-year-old chain gun? I have parts of that thing. Fuckin' T90M? That's the most fearsome thing in the world, man! Holy shit! It's not supposed to be rendered useless on the battlefield by a fucking troop carrier. (So why hasn't Ukraine won yet) The powers that be definitely want everyone to think they're duty-bound to free Ukraine from the bonds of tyranny as soon as possible so it can be welcomed into the brotherhood of Western European nations. But then, Western Europe has been doing that shit since the Varangians. If you look at US-Ukraine relations over the past 20 years one way to look at it is "man, the US were a bunch of dicks." Another way to look at it is "man, the US sure didn't think this 'democracy' thing was gonna stick." Fundamentally? Ukrainians have been an outsized influence in Russian history going back to the 1700s and from a think tank point of view, the over/under on a collapse into tyranny is an even bet. Not only that but provoking it in the direction of Starbucks and SWIFT gets the Russians really really itchy because Ukraine is pretty much where their good culture comes from so they're super good at pretending that "Ukraine" has always just been an awkward phase for some excessively cosmopolitan Cossacks who don't know their place. A history of Enlightenment Europe is a history of "buffer states" (Poland, Belarus, Ukraine. Slovakia) soaking up blood so the barbarians run out of juice before they get to Paris. And Europe, and the US, are definitely taking advantage of that, and both Russia and Europe really want that buffer state on their side. Putin bleeding in Ukraine keeps Putin from bleeding in Austria, Biden bleeding in Ukraine would keep Biden from bleeding in St. Petersberg. But don't for a minute think Poland would go down like that. Poland's got Leopards, Poland's got Abrams, Poland's got K2s. Poland is getting mutherfucking F-35s. The fuzzy, ambivalent circle we drew around Kyiv is a hard, red line around Krakow. Poland got royally fucked by the allies in WWII and fuckin' hell it's a Western nation that spent an achingly long time under tyranny so for once, the West is not being assholes to Poland. But Ukraine? The Machiavellian move in Ukraine is to let it fucking bleed. I don't like it but I get it. The USSR fell in no small part because of their invasion of Afghanistan and every couple months, the Russians lose more troops in Ukraine than they did in the entire occupation of Afghanistan. As far as Mexico? C'mon, man. You know that stupid horse-racing that the press does? "Hey, a Republican hack said Biden's memory is faulty OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A BIGGER PROBLEM THAN TRUMP"? Fuckin' geopolitics are harder to understand and harder to explain and less easy to drum up outrage over. That's why you're out here goin' "two nuclear powers aligned under a fascist banner" as if it was anything other than lazy fanfic.What do you think the global order looks like if the two nuclear superpowers align under a common fascist banner?
Yes, Tucker Journalism is "you say anything you want, then I go a little, and you can cuck me a bit if you're more powerful than me (such is the way). Don't worry, I won't challenge a thing". I would argue that the entire Trump movement timeline is lazy fanfic. The best predictions often involve an absolute caricature of terrible events, but the cards still usually fall more fantastically and awfully than previously thought possible. So here we are. Hey, I didn't say Putin would successfully acquire Poland. It'd be a game of Bear The Poke, in which Russia periodically sends volleys of missiles to test the NATO defense pact. Regardless of anything, Trump will force a U.S. exit of NATO, that much is a given. Europe would be on their own. As for Mexico, sorry, I could absolutely see Trump trying to order military strikes on cartels if he needs to really feed his image and base. Would trade be massively impacted? Sure, but it was all because of the "DRUGS AND MIGRANTS LIKE NOBODY HAS EVER SEEN, EXTREMELY THE WORST ANYONE HAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE, REALLY". The plan is to station the entire military down at the Mexican border for mass deportations anyway, Trump would say, they can defend if Mexico tries anything funny (Trump would say, not me). I do always dig the history takes, truly. It's just very hard to convince me that the U.S. will contain our brand of fascism before it irreversibly infects the global hegemony. When the most powerful country in the world switches teams like this, I think using modern geopolitical history as a guide only gets you so far. Sorryyyyy I know you hate this paragraph. Sorry. But I did love the tank footage, I've seen that tank fight from another angle. There's a separate Bradley that drew their attention and allowed the one firing to flank the T-90, iirc. And I did watch The Pentagon Wars a couple of nights ago. That was pretty excellent. Thank you for the recommend. I think we'd ally with Russia more and more with Trump back in office. I do wonder how Putin will subvert U.S. power and influence while cozying up to Trump, besides the obvious diminishing of respect from other western countries. That'll be a fun courtship to watch, "Kiss me on the dancefloor while I smash your toes".