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"Rapid growth is not ours by divine right; it is not even mathematically possible over a sustained period. Our goal should be to get everyone out of abject poverty, even if it necessitates some income redistribution. Because we have way overstepped sustainable levels, the greatest challenge will be in redesigning lifestyles to emphasize quality of life while quantitatively reducing our demand levels. A lower population would help."
thenewgreen · 4905 days ago · link ·
"Rapid growth is not ours by divine right; it is not even mathematically possible over a sustained period". -We are a nation born of the philosophy of manifest destiny. We care not of "resources" regardless of how limited they are. We will plow ahead, blindly until we fall off the precipice. We are an insane species.
[edit] -I enjoyed the post btw and applaud his attempt to "redirect the plow".
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akbryant54 · 4901 days ago · link ·
Unfortunately we don't live in the 18th century anymore, peak fossil fuels hasn't happened before, peak oil alone is going to be enough to seriously mess with people's retirement plans, to say the least.
I wish I shared your optimism.
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I wouldn't say I'm and optimist. This time is always different for you Malthusians and we are all to blind to see it right? I suppose that eventually you might be right, but rationally I think that that a two hundred and fifty year track record of hysterics and failure is pretty compelling evidence that these types of predictions shouldn't keep me up at night.
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akbryant54 · 4899 days ago · link ·
Believe what you will, the fact is that peak oil has already happened, oil production has been flat for several years, and the global supply chain is entirely dependent on fossil fuels, especially oil.
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That much seems to be true. There isn't much hope that we can bring oil online as fast as demand for it rises. My guess is that we'll really be able to test this for a peak after the global economy recovers. However, that might be some time coming.
Personally, I think food is going to be even more dicey before energy. Water tables are dropping all over the place.
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thenewgreen · 4899 days ago · link ·
As China and India's middle classes grow and they get a penchant for foods that they previously ate little of, it will drive prices up too. -It already is. For example, China is eating more beef and they aren't able to produce enough. Therefore they are importing it from the US, thus driving our cattle prices up. Food Costs are going to be an issue. That being said, we currently spend a very small percentage of our incomes on food. -If I recall it was at about 15% in 1975 and in 2005 it was around 10% of total income. -Much like "prices at the pump", people will not care until it hits them directly in the wallet.
Jeremy Grantham isn't "just now" coming around to this viewpoint - he's been a Hubbert Peak contrarian since the '70s. I dare say his viewpoints were the ones that created The Oil Drum.
That said, he's kind of chewy to read. Better populist ruminations on similar themes from people a little less academic are Bill McKibben, particularly his book "Eaarth", and the film "The End of Suburbia." Should one really wish to wallow in doom and gloom, James Kuntsler isn't to be missed.
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akbryant54 · 4901 days ago · link ·
Thanks for the recommendations! I agree about Grantham's writing, I linked for the info not his writing skill.